Will Syria gain from the war with Iran, or lose because of it? Damascus has found itself facing a new test, hemmed in by multiple theatres of conflict: Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon along its western frontier, and rising tension between militias and the state in Iraq to the east. In its own skies, Israeli aircraft intersect with Iranian missiles and drones in a deadly crossfire.
On the downside, Syria’s reconstruction projects and the prospect of renewed investment now appear suspended. Allied states that form a central pillar in financing recovery have become preoccupied with their own security and economic priorities. European countries, whose partnership is indispensable to any reconstruction path, are themselves burdened by the mounting cost of war.
All of this is likely to deepen the economic crisis and its social and security repercussions inside Syria, furnishing new grounds for extremism and the return of the Islamic State (IS). A further challenge lies in Iran’s attempts, through drones, threats, and carefully planted leaks, to draw Syria into the war and to foster chaos. Tehran has yet to digest the loss of Assad’s Syria and the resulting contraction of its axis of influence.
Should the war end in Tel Aviv’s favour, Israel would be more firmly entrenched as the region’s dominant power, gaining additional leverage over Damascus and increasing the risk that Syria could become an arena of confrontation between Tel Aviv and Ankara, a key ally of Syria’s new leadership.
Such an outcome would also lessen the pressure on Israel to withdraw from the areas it occupied after the regime’s fall at the end of 2024, while inviting deeper Israeli intervention in southern Syria. Its strike on Sweida only days ago, during the war, offered a glimpse of that possibility.
Since the outbreak of the war, President Ahmed al-Sharaa has chosen to keep Syria away from the regional inferno while aligning himself with the Arab camp, and he has deployed the army along the western border to contain any spread of the flames.
