Ukraine war outcome comes with a chilling message

Less than a year before, Russian President Vladimir Putin had penned a piece in which he extensively laid out his view of Russian history, which marginalised Ukraine as a nation, identity and culture, essentially questioning its right to exist as an independent state.

He painted Ukraine's national identity as something manufactured by Poland and Lithuania—and more generally by the West. This sentiment was echoed by prominent Russian intellectuals across various media channels.

For its part, Ukraine hit back with similar ideological fervour. Its officials took to the airwaves to call Russia a fascist state that was obsessed with reintegrating Ukraine into its orbit after it broke away following the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

Hard truths

Fast forward to today, and four years of war have forced Kyiv to face a hard truth. A US push to resolve the conflict involves Ukraine cutting its losses and not only ceding control over 20% of its land that it already lost to Russia on the battlefield but also granting Moscow areas of the Donbas that haven't yet been seized.

Adding insult to injury, the US—an ostensible ally to Kyiv that backed it in its war with Russia—would pretty much get to exploit Ukraine's vast mineral wealth. In the end, both enemy and ally get to feast on the remains of Ukraine's corpse, dividing it into fiefdoms of control. 

Chilling message

This depressing ending sends a chilling message to countries around the world: they can be readily sacrificed if the US can work out a deal with a greater power and divide the spoils of war. In this scenario, weaker states cannot rely on promises of US allyship, making obtaining a nuclear weapon an increasingly enticing choice.

Against this backdrop, North Korea's decision to get nuclear weapons now appears quite sane. The proof is in the pudding: it is still standing, while most countries in the Middle East have been attacked and torn apart by war.

For its part, Iran—which looks to be next on the chopping block—will be taking close note of how the US treats both its enemies and allies. This will be front and centre on the minds of Iranian negotiators as they meet with US officials on Thursday for talks aimed at finding a diplomatic off-ramp to a looming military confrontation between the two states.