Sergei Karaganov: time is on Putin’s side in Ukraine

The veteran political advisor to the Kremlin speaks to Al Majalla as the war nears its fourth year

Reuters/Stringer

Ukrainian soldiers stand next to the bodies of their unidentified brothers-in-arms who died fighting Russian troops in Donetsk in 2022-2023. Their bodies were returned during a swap in November 2025.

Sergei Karaganov: time is on Putin’s side in Ukraine

Ahmed Maher

last update on 17 Dec 2025

The war between Russia and Ukraine has ground on since February 2022. According to military and political observers, Ukraine does not want to surrender and Russia does not know how to win this war.

Al Majalla spoke to one of Russia’s veteran political scholars, Prof. Sergei Karaganov. Once an unofficial advisor to the Kremlin and leaders including President Vladimir Putin, he now heads the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. He believes that after more than three years, the world has realised Russia is at “war with Europe on Ukrainian territory”.

Karaganov noted how Russia had not yet used a nuclear bomb in the war in Ukraine and believes that the US began withdrawing from the war, even under the Biden administration, “when it realised... that it was fighting a losing war, just like it lost in Afghanistan and Iraq... For them, this war is unnecessary”.

Prof. Sergei Karaganov, who heads the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy.

Karaganov rejects the argument that US President Donald Trump’s 28-point peace plan best serves Russia’s interests, and believes European sanctions have significantly benefited Russia, spurring domestic innovation and industry. Importantly, he stresses that the war will only end when Russia restores “our territories in eastern and southern Ukraine and when Europe is excluded” from the peace negotiations. “Time is on Mr Putin’s side,” he said. Here is the conversation.

Ukraine shows no signs of surrender, and Russia does not know how to win the war. What is your view of this?

Well, we have made mistakes in assessing the situation in Ukraine and Europe. But we have halted NATO’s expansion and Ukraine’s military infrastructure buildup. Many in our country believe we should stick to our principles and that we cannot trust Western countries. Also, let me correct you. This is a special military operation, not a war in our eyes. So far, for humanitarian reasons, we have not fully used our resources and capabilities. If we had, we would have killed many more millions of Ukrainians.

Now, are we OK? No. Of course, people are dying on both sides. First, these actions have mostly eliminated military forces, which is not very effective militarily. Second, for humanitarian and religious reasons, we have fortunately not used the absolutely necessary instrument in our arsenal: nuclear deterrence. Until now, we have mentioned it as a deterrence. We have to be aware of that. And we have finally understood that this is not a war with Ukraine, but rather a war with Europe.

According to some estimates, more than a million Russian soldiers have been wounded or killed. Can Russia still win this ‘military operation’, as you call it?

The figures you mention are a gross over-estimation. But, of course, some of our finest military personnel have been killed or wounded, and that is a tragedy. It is also a tragedy that our Ukrainian neighbours are, in many ways, now unfortunately on the wrong side of this confrontation with Europe and have become enemies as well. I have to say that the Ukrainians are losing two or three times more in this war, but that does not mean we are victorious. Killing your brothers is not exactly a victory.

Sputnik/Reuters — Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to Prof. Sergei Karaganov before a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on 7 June 2024.

We could continue this war for some time, and if in the coming phase, Europe and the US retreat, the war will stop. But the Europeans are mad and have not learnt from history. Then we will have to use nuclear weapons, and the war will stop. But I have to underline that nuclear weapons will only be used when it becomes necessary as a deterrence.

What do you make of Trump’s peace plan?

The Americans started to retreat from this war during the Biden administration. They were key to unleashing this war because, for geopolitical reasons, they were fueling the conflict in Ukraine to divide Russia and Europe. They succeeded. But then it became a tremendous problem and I myself explained to them that sooner or later it would escalate to nuclear levels.

We could continue this war for some time. If, in the coming phase, Europe and the US retreat, the war will stop

It would then risk American territory and citizens, so they began withdrawing a year and a half ago. President Trump did not bring anything to this process. The Americans now understand that this is an unnecessary war, which they will lose with shame, just like they lost in Afghanistan. Now, the problem lies with Europe, which has escalated the situation. Europe is the source of all evils in human history—world wars, genocides, racism, to name but a few.

You mentioned that President Trump has not brought anything new to peace efforts. Does this mean that the current peace plan is purely a Russian initiative?

On the surface, he contributed a bare minimum to the process. And we might agree with some of the points he raised. But we have to understand that this is no longer a confrontation with Ukraine. It's a war with Europe. And Europe should be defeated—morally and politically—without us resorting to nuclear weapons.

Regarding the peace plan, do you think it serves Russia's interests alone?

Look, we are now on a constructive path with the US and hope to stay on it. And we hope to reach a ceasefire solution. But the West and Europe should understand one crucial fact: we must regain control over eastern and southern Ukraine. These are purely Russian territories. We must crush the European will, and Europe should be eliminated as a political force.

Sem van der Wal/AFP — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a speech at a meeting of the Council of Europe at the World Forum in The Hague on December 16, 2025.

After that, we can reach an agreement to end the war. But it will take a long time for the Trump plan to materialise if Europe defies these peace efforts, because it has many elements, some of which are only temporarily constructive. But they did not solve the problem. The offer to rejoin the G7 is laughable. It's like an offer to rejoin a junkyard of former powers.

Mr Trump might have understood that Russia is now part of what I call the Big Five: Russia, China, the US, India, and Japan. Again, exclude the European powers from the equation. We don't have anything in common with them. It's those powers that have dragged this war on and on and on.

Who should reconstruct Ukraine when the war ends> Should Russia not help rebuild Ukraine?

I am sorry, we are the victims of 27 years of aggression. The expansion of NATO was politically motivated. I have, since the mid-90s, been telling and warning our Western counterparts on each level that expansion of NATO would lead to war. They did not want to listen. Now it led to war. We have no responsibility for the reconstruction, but we will certainly help in the areas that will rejoin Russia.

Have European sanctions failed to achieve their goals?

I am really thankful to Europe. Sanctions have played a positive role in Russia's development. First of all, we have rid ourselves of all comprador capital. Comprador is the nickname Portuguese colonialists gave to local merchants who served as intermediaries for foreign colonial powers. They were used to trade with Moscow in the past. Now, we are rid of them, as well as the fifth columnists—those internal opponents and dissidents. Well, not fully, yet.

Alexander Nemenov/AFP — An advertising screen displaying an image of Russian President Vladimir Putin in western Moscow, on December 16, 2025.

We have also begun to resurrect our science and industry. Russia is on the right track. The problem is that we are losing investment. But this is understandable and expected. Overall, the impact of war and sanctions has been extremely positive for Russia, except for the humanitarian consequences.

Is it paradoxical that Europe pressures Russia but, at the same time, imports strategic products such as gas?

It is not paradoxical because capitalism prioritises profit. Second, Europe has lost its moral standing in this conflict, making one mistake after another and failing to learn from past experiences. I have been part of these European elites for many years, and I have had almost nobody to talk to, because they are idiots and arrogant. We cannot have a meaningful dialogue with them. It's pointless.

Is time on Putin's side?

Now it is a moving target. People like me have been persuading our leadership that the real aim of this operation is to address the root cause: Europe. But it is a long-term aim, and neither Mr Putin nor I want to sacrifice our people for that.

Look, we have defeated Europe before—the Soviet Union defeated Nazi Germany in the past and liberated Europe from Nazism. We defeated Napoleon and his coalition, and we established peace in Europe for 50 years. Europe has been a source of peace for about 70 years, but now it has become a source of evil.

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