Everyone except Netanyahu wants a peaceful, stable Syria

Israel’s prime minister continues to pick fights in his northern neighbour for personal political reasons, despite Washington and the Arab world wanting Syria to succeed

Everyone except Netanyahu wants a peaceful, stable Syria

Israel’s military raid into the Syrian village of Beit Jinn near Damascus on Friday was far from an isolated event. After locals resisted and Israel’s soldiers and tanks withdrew, Israeli jets flew over and bombed several buildings, killing 13 people, including two children. Israel later said it was targeting Jamaa al-Islamiya, Lebanon’s branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Jamaa al-Islamiya replied that it was not active outside Lebanon.

Beit Jinn is not an anomaly, but part of a pattern established over the last 12 months. Since former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow on 8 December 2024 as his soldiers fled their posts, Israeli forces have repeatedly pushed into Syrian territory, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria was no longer valid.

They have seized new ground and launched airstrikes, bombing what little is left of Assad’s old military infrastructure. Yet despite these provocations and breaches of sovereignty, Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa has repeatedly said that the new Syria does not pose a threat to anyone, including Israel. He has also expressed his willingness to reinstate the disengagement agreement.

Wider considerations

Events in Syria do not only impact Syria. When al-Assad fell, the Iranian-backed militias he had turned a blind eye to also melted away. With Iranian influence waning and Hezbollah wounded in Lebanon, it is now widely agreed that a stable and secure Syria is essential to prevent Iran’s return. Tehran’s proxies are already trying to destabilise Syria, seeking to create the kind of disorder that would allow Iran to re-establish itself.

When Iran held sway over Syria, its militias and agents facilitated the overland transfer of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which threatened Israel, so analysts might have expected Israel to welcome any government that sought to keep Iran at bay. That has not transpired, however, and Netanyahu seems intent on escalating actions in and against Syria, despite the US and Arab capitals supporting al-Sharaa’s leadership.

Politically vulnerable at home, Netanyahu continues to see a threat from the north and continues to strike Syrian towns from the southern buffer zone that Israel invaded after al-Assad’s fall. What, then, does Netanyahu really want from Damascus, amid talk of a security agreement in the offing between his government and al-Sharaa’s?

Netanyahu seems intent on escalating actions in and against Syria, despite the US and Arab capitals supporting al-Sharaa's leadership

In recent weeks, Syria has demanded a full Israeli withdrawal and a return to the territorial status quo before 8 December, but Tel Aviv has no intention of relinquishing the ground on which it has set up military outposts around Jabal al-Sheikh. On the contrary, Israel has every intention of exploiting Syria's current military weakness and its focus on rebuilding after a brutal 14-year civil war.

Not giving ground

Tel Aviv has also used internal Syrian divisions to its advantage. This means preying on the mistrust and fears held by some towards the new leadership. Yet as analysts have pointed out, many of these factions are often driven by narrow self-interest, operating at the expense of Syrian national unity.

Israelis claim to fear that Syria could become a new launchpad for an attack similar to that launched by Hamas on 7 October 2023, a date that has become a convenient pretext for Netanyahu to push ahead with an expansionist regional agenda grounded in deep mistrust of neighbours. Even after regime change in Syria, Israel's security concerns persist. It now fears the growing influence of Arab and Turkish actors.

Seen objectively, however, these Israeli fears and acts of aggression serve the interests of neither Israel nor the Arab region more broadly. Instead, they appear to serve Netanyahu's personal political interests. Facing corruption charges that could see him jailed, pursuing an unpopular fight with Israel's judiciary, and yet to face the Israeli electorate since 7 October 2023, he is fighting for his political survival.

Netanyahu's actions in Syria should be viewed within this context. In wider Middle East terms, he has not 'read the room,' given the overwhelming regional desire for de-escalation and stability. His destabilisation of Syria runs contrary to that. It also runs contrary to the declared willingness of US President Donald Trump, who has said al-Sharaa and his new government deserve a chance. While everyone else turns to peace, Netanyahu continues to pick fights, even if it means 'setting fire to Rome'.

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