West Bank annexation: Israel's answer to Palestine recognition?

Plans are already underway to destroy the geographic contiguity necessary for a viable Palestinian state

West Bank annexation: Israel's answer to Palestine recognition?

Should France and the UK officially recognise the State of Palestine during the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York in the coming days, it will be the most momentous event of the week, and if their pledges are to be believed, that is what they will do, as might others.

Recognition of the State of Palestine by two permanent members of the UN Security Council and two G7 members is one of the fruits of a recent Saudi-French initiative to revive, sustain and support the two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. A major conference on it is being held on 22 September, following an earlier conference at the UN’s headquarters in July, which rallied support for the two-state framework.

This diplomatic movement does not mean that the path to meaningful negotiations to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip has become any smoother. On the contrary, members of Israel’s government want to annex nearly 80% of the West Bank, demolish yet more homes, build yet more settlements (between the Ma’ale Adumim and Giv’at Ze’ev) in Area C, and impose full Israeli military rule over Gaza.

Being cut in two

The Israeli plans include two new roads from which Palestinians will be barred. The first will connect the towns of Al-Eizariya and Az-Za’ayyem, while the second will bypass Al-Eizariya to link with the area near the village of Khan al-Ahmar, east of occupied Jerusalem. This would mean the forced displacement of Bedouin communities in the Jordan Valley and the Khan al-Ahmar area, denying landowners access to property.

The most dangerous aspect of the plan is that it severs occupied Jerusalem from the West Bank and cuts off the northern city of Ramallah from Bethlehem in the south. This would fragment the remaining Palestinian territories into two non-contiguous zones, effectively destroying the geographic coherence necessary for any viable Palestinian state and dismantling what little remains of the Oslo Accords, which laid the foundation for statehood.

Israel's settlement-building plan severs occupied Jerusalem from the West Bank and cuts off the northern city of Ramallah from Bethlehem in the south

Israel's current government aims to seize almost all remaining Palestinian land in one swoop. Previous governments have only nibbled away at it, piece-by-piece. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz captured the government's dismissiveness when considering other states' recognition. "They merely recognise a Palestinian state on paper, while we establish a Jewish state on the ground," he said.

Saudi-French drive

The more formidable the obstacles to a Palestinian state, the more essential a coordinated international response becomes, hence the importance of the Saudi-French initiative to generate momentum. What began a few months ago advanced in the approach to the UNGA, with several European countries changing their stance.

The importance of France and the UK extending recognition to Palestine cannot be overstated. Both Saudi Arabia and France have shown a clear resolve to pursue their drive for a two-state solution, despite mounting challenges, and it may be possible to harness shifting international sentiment regarding the Palestinian cause. Israel's image and reputation have already been hit hard by its conduct in Gaza and its longstanding narrative of existential victimhood is increasingly viewed with scepticism.

Across the world, but particularly in Europe, support for Palestinian statehood has been spurred on by grassroots efforts exerting pressure on governments to translate public outrage against Israel's genocide in Gaza (recently confirmed by a UN report) into official policy, thereby strengthening diplomatic efforts to revive the two-state solution.

Of interest will be Israel's next general elections, expected in 2026. A government with different priorities may then be elected, but it could come too late to prevent annexation and settlement-building in areas that make a State of Palestine no longer viable, whether it is recognised by then or not.

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