Trump tariffs await their date with destiny

The US president’s use of executive power to drive his economic agenda will face the ultimate test at a US Supreme Court hearing set for 5 November

The US Supreme Court
AFP
The US Supreme Court

Trump tariffs await their date with destiny

At the end of August, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington ruled that most of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump against dozens of countries were unlawful. A significant setback for the White House, it sets the stage for an almighty tussle at the Supreme Court, where the country’s nine most powerful judges will consider what the president can and cannot do in terms of trade policy.

The US Supreme Court on Thursday set a date of 5 November for arguments it will hear concerning the legality of Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs in a major test of one of the Republican president's boldest assertions of executive power that has been central to his economic and trade agenda.

In a 7:4 majority ruling, the Appeals Court explained that Trump had exceeded the authority granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA). While this gives the president broad powers to act in a national emergency, it does not expressly authorise the imposition of tariffs or other taxes, nor does it empower the president to impose such measures arbitrarily for economic or security reasons without a clear mandate from Congress.

Trump’s unpredictable trade policies have unsettled financial markets, but he seems determined to pursue his policy of tariffs, which has already brought billions of dollars into the US Treasury. He has until 14 October to appeal to the Supreme Court, where six of the nine judges are conservative. The president will hope they lean his way on the centrepiece of his second term’s economic strategy.

Sole discretion

The Appeals Court’s decision reinforces an earlier ruling issued in late May by the Court of International Trade (CIT) in a case brought by five companies and 12 US states. That court rejected Trump’s argument that the authority to impose global tariffs fell within his “sole discretion” under IEEPA, determining instead that tariffs may only be applied to address an unusual and extraordinary threat that has led to a national emergency.

Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP
US President Donald Trump delivers remarks on reciprocal tariffs as US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick holds a chart during an event in the Rose Garden entitled "Make America Wealthy Again" at the White House in Washington, DC.

The ruling is a heavy blow to Trump’s trade agenda, in which tariffs were due to help reduce America’s trade deficit. The debate comes down to whether the president can impose taxes without Congressional approval. In the past, the Supreme Court has issued rulings supportive of expansive presidential powers, such as over stricter immigration enforcement, limits on military service by transgender personnel, and greater executive authority over federal agencies and their budgets, so Trump will hope for more of the same.

Yet some top legal experts doubt whether the Court will go as far as to endorse Trump's broad interpretation of IEEPA. John Veroneau, a partner at Covington & Burling LLP, is among those who find it difficult to imagine that the justices will interpret the Act so widely that the president could effectively rewrite customs law at will.

Pushing boundaries

The tariffs struck down by the Appeals Court were those Trump labelled "reciprocal", ranging from 10% to 50% depending on the country. Many were first imposed in April 2025, following an earlier wave in February targeting China, Canada, and Mexico in connection with fentanyl trafficking. During his first term, he imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from China, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and other countries, presenting them as measures to protect American industry.

The Appeals Court's decision does not affect tariffs imposed under other legal authorities—such as those on imports of steel, aluminium, copper, and cars—nor the tariffs Trump introduced on Chinese goods during his first term, which were later maintained by his successor, President Joe Biden.

Trump argues that the trade deficit and the flow of migrants and drugs amount to a national emergency threatening the economy and security of the United States, thus justifying his invocation of IEEPA to impose tariffs to compel manufacturers to return jobs to the US and generate revenues to reduce the federal deficit.

Six of the nine Supreme Court judges are conservative. The president will hope they lean his way on the centrepiece of his second term's economic strategy.

He denounced the Appeals Court's decision as biased and wrong, suggesting that some of the plaintiffs were acting on behalf of foreign governments. On social media, he pledged to appeal, warning that overturning his tariffs would trigger economic chaos and weaken the US financially at a critical time.

High stakes

Trump's team say the trade deficit erodes America's industrial base and that unelected judges should not get to decide how to address such threats. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said overturning the tariffs would endanger America's strategic interests at home and abroad, likely provoke retaliation, and could lead to cancelled trade deals.

Critics, including Jeffrey Schwab of the Liberty Justice Centre, argue that allowing Trump's tariffs to stand would be an unacceptable delegation of Congress's constitutional authority, enabling the president to impose tariffs on any country, at any time, for virtually any reason, which undermines America's separation of powers.

Yet with customs revenues reaching $159bn in July—more than double the level a year earlier—and Standard & Poor's highlighting tariff revenues as a factor supporting America's AA+ credit rating, a Supreme Court confirmation of the Appeals Court's ruling would be a major blow to Trump's White House.

Sara Padovan

Read more: Trump's new tariff wave: winners and losers

Trump's team say such an outcome could force the government to refund substantial sums in import duties already collected, weaken the US negotiating position in future trade disputes, and encourage states to resist Trump's demands or even reopen existing agreements (such as the trade deal with the EU worth nearly $1tn). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said cancelling the tariffs would put the US in "an awkward and dangerous diplomatic position". Trump said taxpayers would bear the cost, with pressure on long-term interest rates, should revenues collapse.

Limits to power

The upcoming legal battle comes amid heightened tensions, not least due to Trump's threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which made markets baulk. Former Fed board governor Lisa Cook, whom Trump dismissed, has successfully challenged her removal in court, but that is being appealed and is expected to reach the Supreme Court, in yet another legal test of presidential authority.

Should the Supreme Court side with the Appeals Court, Trump's administration has begun preparing alternative legal grounds to defend its tariff policy, including using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which Trump previously used in 2018 to justify tariffs following a Commerce Department investigation.

Another possibility is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, under which Section 338 allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imports from countries that discriminate against US trade. The Court of International Trade, in its May ruling, also noted that the administration could resort to Sections 122, 232, and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, enabling it to impose tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days on countries with which the US has particularly large trade deficits. Trump will hope none of that is needed.

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