Trump finally realises that Putin is stringing him along. Now what?

The US president appeared visibly frustrated with the Russian leader earlier this week. Cue talk of secondary sanctions on Russia’s clients and more weapons for Ukraine.

Trump finally realises that Putin is stringing him along. Now what?

US President Donald Trump’s mounting frustration with Russia President Vladimir Putin over his refusal to agree ceasefire terms in Ukraine could be a game-changer in the three-and-a-half-year conflict.

Since returning to the White House in January, ending the war in Ukraine has been one of the Trump administration’s most pressing priorities. While his boast that he would end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office was always unrealistic, the president has nonetheless invested a great deal of time and effort in seeking a peaceful resolution.

At the diplomatic level, he has pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Washington’s outline ceasefire proposal, which requires Kyiv to accept Russia’s continued occupation of its territory in eastern Ukraine and the Crimea. To persuade Putin, Trump has suggested that Ukraine’s quest for full NATO membership would be put on hold indefinitely.

Russia’s offensive

Even though Zelenskyy has agreed to accept the ceasefire terms in return for an immediate end to Russia’s military offensive, Trump—who has never been the most enthusiastic supporter of the Ukrainian cause—has scaled down Washington’s military support for Kyiv, severely undermining Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

Given that a negotiated end to the conflict is Trump’s priority, the White House seems to think that bolstering Ukraine’s military while talks are underway is a bad idea. Seeing this, Russian forces have launched a huge offensive to capture more territory, while attacking Ukraine’s major cities from the air. Kyiv is now struggling to defend its eastern front because of weapons shortages.

Only last week, the Pentagon said it had halted shipments of some air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries about US stockpiles. White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said the decision “was made to put America’s interests first, following a review,” adding: “The strength of the US Armed Forces remains unquestioned. Just ask Iran.”

Tapping Trump along

The move to reduce US military support for Ukraine was taken shortly before Trump spoke to Putin on a call, one of several such conversations in recent months. This dialogue began promisingly, with Trump indicating back in February that Putin was genuinely interested in doing a deal.

But as negotiations have dragged on, Trump has become increasingly frustrated with the lack of progress and has publicly questioned whether Putin is simply “tapping me along” to buy more time for Russian forces to press their advantage on the battlefield.

The Pentagon said it had halted shipments of some air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine. Seeing this, Russian forces launched a huge offensive

It now seems that Trump's most recent call to Putin at the end of last week could be the final straw, with the American president having now lost patience. Trump said he was "disappointed" with Putin for not taking the negotiations seriously. "We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth," said Trump last week. "He's very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless."

Trump's irritation with Putin was compounded by the fact that, within hours of the call ending, Russia launched one of its largest drone and missile attacks against many of Ukraine's major cities, including Kyiv. Ever since, large-scale attacks have occurred on an almost daily basis, the heaviest since 2022.

US weapons U-turn

Trump's anger at Putin is such that he has now reversed the Pentagon decision, by resuming arms supplies to Ukraine, a move that could prove to be an important turning point in his  approach to the conflict. Trump may be preparing to take a far more robust approach to confronting Russia over its refusal to end the war.

Apart from resuming supplies of much-needed air defences to Ukraine, including US Patriot air defence systems, Trump says he may approve a bill that would significantly increase economic sanctions against Moscow, in particular by imposing secondary sanctions that would punish countries like China and India that continue to buy Russian gas and oil, thus funding Putin's war.

About half of the Russian economy is financed by exports of oil and gas, so any move by the US to target those countries still doing business with Moscow could have a devastating impact on Putin's ability to finance the war in Ukraine. There is even talk of 500% tariffs on Russia's customers.

This might focus Putin's mind, because there is little sign that he has any genuine intention of ending hostilities in Ukraine in the near future. The longer that continues, the more Trump may realise he needs to take a tougher line with the Russian leader. "I don't think he's looking to stop" the war, Trump lamented after his most recent call. "I'm not happy with him." What that translates to remains to be seen.

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