Politics

Putin and Trump prompt Europe to scale up defence spending

The UK this week pledged to spend billions more on its military readiness as part of a trend sweeping across the continent. The post-Cold War peace dividend now seems like a distant memory.

Louisa Gouliamaki/Reuters

A Bell OH-58 Kiowa helicopter flies by a military drone in US military exercises with European states on 4 June 2025.

Putin and Trump prompt Europe to scale up defence spending

Con Coughlin

last update on 05 Jun 2025

With Europe experiencing its largest conflict since the Second World War in Ukraine, it is no surprise that European governments are suddenly spending far more on defence.

For decades after the end of the Cold War, Europe took full advantage of the so-called “peace dividend”, dramatically reducing military spending in favour of other areas such as education, health, and welfare.

Such were the reductions that many European countries failed to meet the minimum requirement of the NATO alliance, which demands that member states spend at least 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence.

By 2014, only three member states of the 28-nation alliance could claim to be doing so, a failing that has led to friction between Europe and the United States, where defence spending has averaged about 3.5%.

Despite member states pledging to meet the requirement at that year’s 2014 NATO summit in Wales, the disinclination of many European leaders to pay their fair share towards NATO continued, despite Russia having invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine earlier that year.

Given a sharp nudge

The row between Washington and Brussels only deepened after Donald Trump began his first term as US president in 2017, the White House regularly chastising its European allies for failing to meet their commitments.

Trump’s frustration with European states not paying their fair share towards the defence of Europe is still strong in his second term, which began in January—even though at least 22 members of the alliance now spend 2% on defence.

Such were the post-Cold War reductions in military spending that many European countries did not meet to 2% minimum NATO requirement

US Vice President JD Vance warned in February that Europe must pay for its own defence, as the continuing conflict in Ukraine prompts several European countries (including Germany) to radically change their thinking on defence spending.

According to a recent study published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, total defence spending for European NATO members for 2024 reached $454bn, part of a recent 9.4% increase in global military expenditure.

Turning on the taps

The biggest increases in defence spending took place in Central and Western Europe, where countries see themselves as being most at risk from an aggressive Russia, whose President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Louisa Gouliamaki/Reuters — Greek Leopard tanks participating with other NATO forces in immediate response drills. European states are suddenly increasing their defence spending.

Many European leaders are concerned that Moscow may soon look further afield, possibly launching military action against states in eastern Europe, the Baltic region, or Scandinavia. Such a move could provoke a broader conflict with NATO.

With Trump having indicated that he may not defend Europe in the event of further Russian aggression, European capitals increasingly feel they need to be able to defend themselves, so have approved sharp rises in their military expenditure.

Germany, which previously had good relations with Moscow, did not maintain defence spending at 2% of GDP for many years. That has now changed drastically. Its military expenditure has increased by 28% to $88.5bn, making it Europe's biggest spender on defence, and the fourth biggest in the world.

Poland, which has a long history of conflict with Russia, has also responded to the increased threat from Moscow, increasing its military spending increasing by 31% to $38bn, which is 4.2% of GDP.

A worldwide trend

Both Warsaw and Berlin are wary of Putin's decision to place the Russian economy on a war footing, with Russia's military expenditure reaching $149bn last year (which is 7.1% of GDP), up 38% from 2023 and double the level in 2015. Almost one fifth of all Russian government spending is now focused on supporting the military.

Ukraine's military expenditure has grown by 2.9% to $64.7bn, less than half Russia's, but this is actually a higher proportion of the country's GDP, at 34%.

Russia's military expenditure reached $149bn last year (which is 7.1% of GDP), up 38% from 2023 and double the level in 2015

The US is still the world's biggest spender on defence, it having reached a colossal $997bn (or 5.7% of GDP). America's military expenditure now accounts for two thirds of total NATO spending, and 37% of all military spending globally.

China, meanwhile, has become the world's second largest military spender, increasing it by 7% to an estimated $314bn, marking three decades of consecutive growth. This accounts for half of all military spending in the Asia-Pacific region.

Donning the helmet

The increased global threat level prompted UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to review the country's defence needs, pledging to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027/28, with an overall "ambition" to hit 3% by 2034.

The UK is one of the few countries to have consistently spent at least 2% on defence but its military capabilities have nevertheless been dramatically reduced since the end of its combat operations in Afghanistan in 2014.

Starmer recently said Britain would radically change its approach to defence to address threats from Russia, including nuclear risks and cyberattacks, by investing in drones and digital warfare. He pledged the largest sustained increase to UK defence spending since the end of the Cold War.

If the end of the Cold War led European leaders to conclude that they no longer needed to invest heavily in their defence, the war in Ukraine and Trump's return to the White House have persuaded them of the opposite.

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