Syria needs to be careful public sector cuts don't stoke widespread anger

As a result, government agencies became severely bloated, with many employees receiving salaries despite minimal or no work. Reports indicate that, on average, ministries employ twice the number of workers than actually required.

This practice contributed to economic stagnation and drained state resources, rendering the model unsustainable as Syria's financial crisis deepened. With state revenues failing to cover the massive wage bill, salaries could no longer be adjusted in line with inflation, exacerbating economic hardships.

Ghost employees

The caretaker government quickly recognised the extent of the problem. According to a preliminary review by transitional authorities, only 900,000 of the 1.3 million people on the government payroll actually report to work. This means that approximately 400,000 are ghost employees—individuals who collect salaries without performing any duties. Even among those who do report, a significant percentage are engaged in disguised unemployment, with real labour needs estimated at or below 600,000 workers—just two-thirds of those actively working.

In response, the caretaker government has moved to eliminate these inefficiencies. Layoffs have begun, primarily targeting ghost employees, but thousands of legitimate workers have also been placed on three months' paid leave, with no clear indication of what will happen when that period ends. The caretaker government has stated that this measure is part of a broader effort to reassess staffing needs.

Those deemed unnecessary will reportedly be added to the Ministry of Social Affairs' job-seeking list. However, it remains unclear whether their salaries will continue until alternative employment is secured. This uncertainty has fueled fears that paid leave is merely a temporary step before mass dismissals.

Growing public anger

While reducing excess public sector employment is necessary for economic recovery, failing to address its consequences could destabilise Syria before it has a chance to rebuild. Neither the public nor private sector is equipped to absorb such a large number of unemployed workers, particularly given the tens of thousands of former army and security personnel who have already lost or will soon lose their jobs. Sacking hundreds of thousands of workers without providing economic alternatives risks creating a mass of frustrated individuals, exacerbating Syria's fragile transition.

The scale and speed of the restructuring have already triggered frequent protests in cities including Damascus, Daraa, Latakia, and Tartous. Demonstrators—many of them civil servants from sectors such as health, banking, and defence—have taken to the streets to demand job security and denounce what they see as arbitrary dismissals. These protests underscore the growing frustration among workers who fear being left without livelihoods. Economic desperation has historically been a catalyst for political instability in Syria, and this wave of unrest could pose a serious security risk.

Additionally, in some areas, protests have taken on a sectarian dimension, with accusations that certain communities are being disproportionately targeted for layoffs. The caretaker government has denied these claims, insisting that reforms are driven by economic necessity rather than political considerations. However, the perception of bias—whether real or not—could further inflame tensions in an already fractured society.

Caution urged

The caretaker government must approach this issue with caution, ensuring that redundant workers are given opportunities to reintegrate into the economy. A phased approach to downsizing, rather than sudden mass dismissals, could help mitigate the economic shock. Additionally, economic diversification is crucial. The government must continue to create incentives for private sector growth, particularly in industries capable of absorbing large numbers of workers, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and construction.

Retraining programmes will be essential to help workers develop new skills that align with the needs of a restructured economy. Establishing social safety nets will also be critical in preventing economic hardship among those unable to find immediate alternative employment.

While the caretaker government's ambition to create a leaner and more efficient administration is understandable, reforming the public sector without addressing the broader economic landscape risks turning a necessary adjustment into a crisis. The transitional authorities must proceed with caution, ensuring that reforms are balanced with social stability, or they may face a new wave of unrest that could undermine their fragile grip on power.