In recent TV interviews, the head of Syria’s new interim government said it would take time for an improvement in living conditions after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government last month. Speaking honestly about timescales, Ahmed Al-Sharaa dashed hopes of swift progress, suggesting that it may take a year or more to feel noticeable differences, three years to draft a new constitution, and four years to hold elections.
Time is of the essence. Syria has multiple priorities, many of which are urgent. After years of conflict, economic sanctions, and structural collapse, its industrial and service sectors have eroded, suffering from physical destruction and the displacement and migration of personnel.
With al-Assad gone, there is now a huge national reconstruction project to undertake, but there is also a historic opportunity to enact comprehensive economic reform, rebuild a modern nation-state, revive its economic fortunes, and end Syria’s endemic corruption and mismanagement. This, in turn, will help rebuild Syria’s fragile social fabric.
Immediate priorities
Some issues must be addressed swiftly, including stabilising the country’s security and bringing the militias under the banner of a new national army. Linked to this is the necessity of a civil peace fostered by inclusive governance that brings minorities (including those seeking autonomy) into the political system.
Economically, a priority is restarting the vital production facilities in Syria’s energy sector, not least ensuring a ready domestic supply of fuel. This will require the reassertion of sovereignty over Syria’s east, which is rich in oil, grains, and cotton.
Oil production will keep the country’s power plants running, which in turn will power the refineries, revive the once-strong textile industry, increase agricultural productivity, and reduce the need for imports of goods such as wheat. Yet hanging over everything is the continuing plethora of Western sanctions. Damascus hopes that new US President Donald Trump will lift these in the coming months.
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Oil and power
On the ground, Syrians are in desperate need of electricity. For years, they have had 20-hour electricity blackouts and rationing. This will not help efforts to revive Syria’s industrial base. Syria has oilfields but most are controlled by armed Kurdish groups in the north-east. As a result, Syria has had to import fuel from countries like Iran, but sanctions and a lack of foreign currency reserves have led to import limits.
Restoring the oil supply is one thing, but further challenges lie in production, distribution, and affordability, particularly as the new government needs to cut subsidies. This links to priorities in healthcare, education, and employment. Analysts warn that finding work for discharged army personnel is especially important, given extremist groups' interest in thousands of suddenly jobless soldiers.