Assad's toppling shows that change is possible

Let's recall the Tunisian vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, whose act of self-immolation sparked a wave of anti-government protests popularly labelled as the 'Arab Spring' across the region, which resulted in the toppling of long-serving autocrats such as Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen.

These seismic events represented the first wave of change, including the Syrian uprising against al-Assad's rule, although his departure came much later, only this month after a decade-long civil war destroyed large swathes of the country.

The region has been in turmoil ever since failed 'Arab Spring' movements. Failed attempts by the Muslim Brotherhood to establish their flawed political model sparked new unrest in Sudan, Iraq, Lebanon and Algeria in 2019. The lesson that some drew from these experiences was that Arab societies favour stability over transformative change.

Deeper complexities

But the complexities run much deeper than this broad conclusion. Arab societies are deeply divided, as seen in countries like Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine, Syria and Yemen, where Iran exploited sectarian or political grievances, pitting citizens against each other. All of this was part of its strategy to use these groups as foreign policy cards to protect its own regime.

These divisions, whether sectarian, regional, or ethnic, pitted Sunnis against Shiites, Arabs against Kurds, and minorities against majorities. Additionally, the fragmentation of the Palestinian cause among its own people and its manipulation by a skilled regional player further compounded the challenges facing the region.

The fall of al-Assad negates the notion that Arab societies resigned themselves to the reality of the status quo, ie. being ruled by dictators. With the toppling of the 54-year rule of the Assad regime comes the toppling of policies built around the idea that Syrians had no agency to change their reality.

While what happened in Syria may not necessarily unfold elsewhere in the region anytime soon, it demonstrates that change is not impossible. It also serves as a warning to regional players who champion one-dimensional perspectives and approaches that fail to capture the depth and breadth of the intricate dynamics at play.