Four key challenges for Syria's new government

Despite the fighting, negotiations and mediation between Damascus and Qamishli continue in an attempt to reach a settlement. However, many believe the decisive turning point will coincide with Donald Trump's presidential inauguration on 20 January.

Türkiye, a key backer of Syria's new leadership, is placing its hopes on Trump's anticipated approval to withdraw the 2,000 US troops stationed in Syria. This could put pressure on the SDF to accept the terms proposed by al-Sharaa.

Türkiye has undoubtedly benefited from al-Assad's fall and al-Sharaa's rise. Negotiations between Damascus and Ankara are progressing towards a joint defence agreement, which includes establishing military bases in Homs and Damascus and deploying air defence systems to deter Israeli aggression. These developments significantly boost al-Sharaa's position in negotiations with Abdi.

2. Fresh Israeli occupation

While Western countries expect the new Syrian leadership to ensure the state will not pose a threat to its neighbours— especially Israel—Netanyahu's destruction of Syria's military infrastructure and seizure of Syrian land this month has created fresh tensions between the two traditional foes.

But while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Arab ministers that Netanyahu promised to withdraw his forces from Syria by the end of winter, observers are sceptical. For its part, Syria's new transitional government has stressed to Western envoys the importance of Israeli withdrawal to the 7 December Line to avoid new conflict.

However, it remains to be seen what incentive Israel has to pull out from the buffer zone that it seized in the Golan Heights, along with key monitoring sites on Mount Hermon. After all, when Israel occupied a portion of the Syrian Golan Heights in the 1967 war, it has remained in Israel's hands ever since then.

3. Integrating armed factions

The third challenge revolves around the armed factions. Ahmad Al-Sharaa has prioritised security and the creation of a new unified military force. He met with faction leaders and appointed a new defence minister to oversee the military's restructuring and the integration of factions, and on Tuesday, most groups agreed to work under the country's defence ministry and dissolve.

Key groups include Jaysh al-Islam, led by Essam Al-Buwaydani in Douma, and Ahmed Al-Awda, head of the Southern Operations Room. While most factions have agreed to dissolve under the new framework, Daraa factions are still negotiating their integration.

The integration of paramilitary groups is crucial, as the example of Sudan illustrates. After the collapse of Omar al-Bashir's regime, the country ended up descending into a civil war where the national army is currently still battling the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in what has come to be known as the "Generals' War". Due to the ongoing civil war, the US has yet to lift sanctions on Khartoum, which has made the terrible humanitarian situation in the country even more dire. 

This is why it is so crucial for Syrian armed groups to dissolve and unify under a unified national structure.

4. Drafting a new constitution

The fourth challenge is agreeing on the structure and composition of a new government and drafting a new constitution. While initial plans focused on a conference for opposition figures in Cairo, Syria's new leadership is now pushing for a national conference in Damascus.

A senior Political Committee member has reportedly contacted former Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa for consultations in this regard. Additionally, discussions are underway to request recently appointed provincial governors—many of whom are former faction leaders from the Deterrence Operation—to nominate 40–50 representatives from each province, with 70 from Daraa due to its special status.

The goal is to convene an inclusive conference of Syrians who remained in the country during the conflict, laying the foundation for drafting a new constitution and transitioning to the post-1 March phase.