For the past week, hundreds of thousands of Georgians have taken to the streets in cities across the country, and the situation is escalating by the day. In the capital, Tbilisi, the demonstrators have been met with an increasingly forceful government response, with the use of tear gas and water cannons now routine. Social media is flooded with videos and photos that document police brutality, targeting journalists, political activists, and ordinary citizens. Opposition politicians have been arrested from their homes.
Despite the heavy-handed crackdown, the protests show no signs of abating. On the contrary, the government’s aggressive tactics appear to have strengthened the resolve of the demonstrators, who view their cause as a fight for Georgia’s future.
The protests are driven by grievances that have been building for months, but the catalyst was the government’s recent announcement that it will suspend Georgia’s push for European Union membership until at least 2028. Joining the EU has long been a unifying aspiration for Georgians regardless of political affiliation, with polls consistently showing over 80% support. This decision has been perceived as a profound betrayal, even by many supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream party.
There is also still much anger and frustration over Georgia’s October parliamentary elections, which many opposition leaders, civil society organisations, and international observers have labelled fraudulent. Since the elections, in which the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party declared victory, demonstrations have flared up intermittently.
Similarly, protests broke out in May after the Georgian Dream-led government enacted the so-called “Russian law,” a deeply controversial measure that enables the government to launch Kremlin-style crackdowns on civil society. But the scale and fervour of the protests catalysed by the EU announcement have not been seen since Georgia’s Rose Revolution in 2003.
What makes this wave of protests particularly significant is the diversity of participants. Past protests were largely fuelled by opposition supporters, but the movement has now expanded to include a much broader spectrum of society. Dozens of diplomats and civil servants have resigned to protest the government’s suspension of EU accession and declared their support for the demonstrators. Even some Georgian Dream voters have joined the protests, reflecting a deepening national dissatisfaction.
A galvanising figure for the protesters has been Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, a staunch Euro-Atlanticist and vocal critic of the ruling party who has joined the protesters and confronted riot police in Tbilisi. Her term ends later this month, but she has vowed to remain in office until “until a legitimately elected parliament is formed.”
Given the widening scale of the protests with broadening participation, Georgia appears to be in a pre-revolutionary state. While this wave of demonstrations is only entering its second week, the grievances driving them have been simmering for years. The situation is evolving rapidly, making it difficult to predict the next steps.
Four potential scenarios should inform Western policymakers as they navigate their response.
1. Compromise scenario
With enough internal and external pressure, the Georgian Dream government could decide to backtrack on some of its more controversial decisions. Bidzina Ivanishvili, a wealthy oligarch and former prime minister widely considered the de-facto leader of Georgian Dream, could decide that he and his allies have pushed too far too fast—and take steps to de-escalate. This might involve minor concessions, such as reversing the decision to suspend EU accession or repealing the Russian law. A more significant compromise would be an agreement on new parliamentary elections.
However, with each day that goes by and each new bout of government violence against the demonstrators, the possibility of a compromise that will satisfy the demands of the people becomes more remote. Already, the debate among the protesters has moved beyond specific grievances, such as the Russian law or election fraud.
Many Georgians now see the standoff between protesters and the government as reflecting a civilisational choice between slipping back into the Russian world or deepening integration with Europe and the West. The fact that the debate has reached this point suggests that even a compromise on specific issues will not make the fight over Georgia’s future identity go away.
2. Belarus scenario
Georgia could also see a variation of what happened in Belarus following the fraudulent presidential election in August 2020, when weekslong protests were followed by brutal police-state suppression with Russian help. In this case, Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream associates might refuse any and all compromise, leaning on Moscow to institute an authoritarian crackdown to entrench their power. This would involve the use of all state resources to rapidly suppress civil society, political opposition, and independent media. Russian support could take the form of assistance by its security services, similar to how the Kremlin aided the Belarusian regime.
If there is an increased presence of security forces in unmarked uniforms on Georgian streets, these will likely be Russians. The Kremlin could also provide the Georgian Dream government with technical support and advice on how to intensify the crackdown.
3. Cold-War Poland scenario
When the communist Polish government declared martial law in 1981 to suppress a national uprising, it argued that the measures were necessary to preempt a Soviet invasion to restore order. Similarly, Georgian Dream could scare Georgians into falling in line by pointing to the risk of a Russian military intervention. Moscow could encourage invasion fears with military provocations from the Russian-occupied Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream would further remove democratic checks as it tightens its grip.
4. Fireworks revolution
The fourth and most dramatic scenario is revolution, perhaps named after the now characteristic use of fireworks by the anti-government demonstrators. If public pressure continues to build, international pressure mounts, and the government’s crackdowns become increasingly brutal, Georgian society could reach a tipping point. One key tipping point to watch for is segments of the police and security forces defecting to the protesters and shifting the balance of power. If that happens, Ivanishvili and his inner circle could be forced to flee the country.
The revolution could then take two distinct paths. One would be the appointment of an interim government—potentially led by Zourabichvili—as Georgia prepares for new elections in the spring, much like the situation in Ukraine after the 2014 Maidan Revolution. The revolution’s other potential course would be a chaotic power struggle reminiscent of Georgia’s turbulent post-independence period in the 1990s. The latter scenario would leave the country vulnerable to prolonged instability and violence.
Along either path, the possibility of Russian military intervention looms large. Even though Russian forces are stressed to the maximum in Ukraine (and now in Syria), Russian President Vladimir Putin may fight to keep Georgia in the Russian world as he has chosen to fight before.
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 after the Maidan Revolution ousted a pro-Russian president who had, just like Georgian Dream, reversed course on deepening relations with the EU. In Belarus, Russian security forces helped stabilise the regime after mass protests in 2020. In Kazakhstan, Russia intervened in 2022 after several days of political violence. Given this pattern, it is entirely plausible that Moscow would try to take similar action in Georgia.
Georgia’s future geopolitical orientation now hangs in the balance. The outcome of this national struggle will determine whether the country aligns with the West or falls under Moscow’s influence. As they swing their blue-and-gold EU flags next to their white-and-red Georgian ones, the protesters also represent a broader European ideal: that each nation has the sovereign right to choose its own path and alliances and that no outside power—least of all Georgia’s former imperial overlord—should dictate the country’s future.
What is taking place in Georgia today is part of the larger geopolitical struggle between Europe and Russia. The sooner Western policymakers understand this, the faster they can develop an effective policy to counter Russia. The Georgians have proven that they are willing to fight for their future. Can they depend on their Western partners to back them?
