Why cutting Hezbollah's arms flow from Syria won't be easy

In recent operations, Israel claimed to have targeted a cargo vehicle laden with arms destined for Hezbollah as it attempted to cross from Syria into Lebanon, between Jdeidet Yabous and Masnaa. Israel also announced multiple strikes on weapons depots in pivotal areas like Qusayr, in Homs province near the Syrian-Lebanese border, where armaments are ostensibly stored before transfer to Lebanon. Beyond conventional arms, Israeli forces have targeted Hezbollah personnel responsible for transporting arms and other advanced technologies from Syria.

Israel's operations appear to have inflicted significant blows to Hezbollah's cross-border arms supply from Syria. In addition to destroying numerous stockpiles, these strikes have complicated Hezbollah's logistics, making weapons movement more arduous. Nevertheless, completely dismantling Hezbollah's arms pipeline through Syria with limited air strikes remains highly unlikely due to several factors.

Rugged terrain

First, the expansive and rugged Syrian-Lebanese border is inherently difficult to monitor in its entirety, especially given Hezbollah's entrenched presence and influence on both sides. This region is intricately woven with clandestine routes and tunnels, specifically in regions like Qalamoun and southern Homs, where Hezbollah has strategically positioned itself to fortify its supply network.

These covert channels—established and maintained by Hezbollah and its allies—make it nearly impossible to entirely cut off arms shipments through aerial strikes alone. With Hezbollah's extensive connections to local smuggling networks, arms shipments continue to slip through detection, frustrating Israel's surveillance and intelligence efforts.

Unwavering commitment

Adding to Israel's challenge is Iran's unwavering commitment to arming Hezbollah. Tehran's substantial military presence in Syria has simplified the transport and storage of advanced weapons than in the past.

Beyond its stockpiles within Syria, Iran has established resilient arms supplies through Iraq, where allied forces control key border areas with Syria.  Additionally, Iran reportedly manufactures weapons inside Syria, diminishing the impact of losses from Israeli strikes en route to Lebanon by ensuring a continuous arms supply for Hezbollah.

Al-Assad's stance

The Syrian regime's stance also complicates Israel's mission. While Bashar al-Assad maintains a degree of distance from direct confrontations with Israel, he appears unwilling to interfere with Hezbollah's activities on Syrian soil. Blocking arms shipments would carry substantial risks for al-Assad, as Hezbollah remains a key ally in securing his regime's influence. Al-Assad's alignment with Iran and Hezbollah is likely to persist, complicating Israel's efforts to sever Hezbollah's supply lines.

While Israel has demonstrated an ability to disrupt and complicate Hezbollah's weapons supply, the group's extensive connections and highly adaptable logistics create a resilience that air strikes alone cannot dismantle.

As long as the al-Assad regime permits arms transfers and Iran remains unwavering in its support, Hezbollah's "oxygen pipelines" are likely to remain intact, undermining Israel's aspirations for a decisive strategic victory.  For Israel, this should serve as a stark reminder that achieving security in such a complex environment requires far more than brute force.