Lebanon needs a great leader to navigate this turbulent time

Following Hezbollah's armed takeover of parts of West Beirut in May 2008, its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, sought to drive home the group's influence in the country, installing a president of his choosing. Ever since, he has been systematically undermining the country's political and judicial systems, such as by obstructing an investigation into the 2020 Beirut port explosion. This has shielded Lebanon's corrupt political class and effectively paralysed reforms.

A poisoned legacy

Today, the effects are being seen as hundreds of thousands of Lebanese pour north into towns and cities deemed safe, seeking to avoid areas of Hezbollah influence. Scrambling to find housing and basics, most of the displaced come from regions that Israel has already bombed. This creates psychological trauma, as they witness first-hand the collapsing protection that Hezbollah said it offered.

Overcrowding is now a problem in Beirut and other mountainous and northern areas, exacerbating tensions among residents already competing for limited resources in a country still reeling from a catastrophic economic collapse in 2019.

Politically, the situation is difficult to frame. Some now want to elect a new president to reunite the Lebanese people and help end this war with Israel. Hezbollah's preferred candidate is Suleiman Frangieh, who comes from a famous Maronite Christian family whose Marada party has allied with Nasrallah since 2006. Yet, although he has not yet withdrawn from the race for Baabda Palace, he suddenly finds himself in a weaker position.

Identity and authority

Whoever eventually assumes the role will have a tough job. Although the Lebanese have—at times—united around certain ideas and views, they are today deeply fragmented. Even in education, state institutions have succumbed to sectarian control and influence. Likewise, Lebanon's armed forces—which, of all state institutions, should rise above factionalism—are instead riven by it.

More broadly, there is no common narrative that most Lebanese could embrace, so how, then, can a legitimate Lebanese identity and authority be rebuilt? This challenge has only intensified with the rapid collapse of Hezbollah's narrative of resilience and power.

Its supporters are humiliated by the group's high-profile setbacks, including the killing of its leaders and the hacking of its communications. This has dissolved the propaganda around Hezbollah's strength—a group once thought capable of protecting not just Lebanese Shiites and their Christian political allies but Lebanon as a whole.

The lack of any vision for Lebanon that is not based on sectarianism obstructs any consensus toward power-sharing and governance. As such, the idea of 'consensual democracy' in this context has failed. Picking at the bones is the gaggle of long-circling politicians who are driven by greed and capable of brutality.

Even before this Israeli military assault, Lebanon's problems were myriad and cellular, its fractures deep and widening. Now, more than ever, it needs a next great leader to emerge.