Gaza’s resistance has been crushed… and not just by inevitability

It is manipulating negotiations because it sees its tanks, troops, drones and jets as an opportunity to politically erase the Palestinian people, to subjugate and dominate them from the river to the sea, reducing Gaza's demographic burden as fully as possible.

Israel may even seek to expand its war against the world by delivering a devastating blow to Hezbollah in Lebanon and targeting Iran's nuclear programme, under the pretext of eliminating threats against it.

After being caught off-guard by a painful and severe blow on 7 October, Israel has used the following 323 days to override the "victory" that Hamas achieved, which remains too great for Israel to bear or to overlook.

Israel's answer has been for its response to facilitate a catastrophe for the Palestinian people, particularly those in the Gaza Strip.

No Arab unity here

Hamas saw the 7 October operation as resistance; an effort to rid itself of Israel (or, at least, the occupation). As such, it called on the Arab and Islamic worlds, as well as Palestinians, to attack Israel, as per Mohammed Deif's speech on 7 October 2023.

They did not. Hamas's call did not resonate. Battered, it is the one now seeking a truce, accusing Netanyahu's government of evading US proposals, despite its claims that the Israeli army is sinking in the sands of Gaza.

Not only do Israeli tanks show no sign of leaving, but commanders' sights are now set on other fronts, with Israel launching attacks in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and even against Iran itself.

Hamas miscalculated, betting on "angelic" support and a "unity of fronts" in calls that went unheeded. It also miscalculated its capabilities when it launched its assault, acting as if it were an army confronting another army.

Furthermore, it underestimated the support Israel gets from the United States and the West in general, including military backing, as seen in April. Finally, it underestimated Israeli resolve. Israelis now see this as a war of existence, requiring endurance.

An unwanted ceasefire

The internal rifts within Israel are related to domestic reasons (such as changes to its judiciary). They are not related to the conflict with the Palestinians. On this, the vast majority of Israelis support to total eradication of Hamas, come what may.

Hamas's leadership has failed to grasp the gravity of its decisions, for which Gaza's people have paid such a heavy price. Despite their sacrifice and heroism, Hamas cannot sustain the fight, whereas Israel can.

None of this alters the reality of Gaza's destruction. Its people, its homes, and its environment have all been flattened.

Under pressure domestically, it suits Netanyahu's government to continue the war. His ministers do not care if Gaza's traumatised residents can barely secure a drop of water or a morsel of food.

Hamas's current demand is for Israel to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, particularly from the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors, rather than from the West Bank, as had originally been demanded.

In addition, Hamas's demands that Israel ends its violations at Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, and that it releases its Palestinian prisons, have become limited over time.

No further forward

The current proposal is for a permanent end to the war, not the continuation of resistance, with some suggesting a truce lasting years. This includes the opening of crossings for humanitarian aid and developing a reconstruction plan.

All of this was already in place before 7 October. The only difference now is that Israel's war has rendered the Gaza Strip uninhabitable. Gaza as it existed before 7 October no longer exists. In structural and human terms, the toll is immense.

Hamas's only card is now its Israeli prisoners, but that is no longer sufficient to pressure Netanyahu's government, which instead simply uses their continued detention to justify and continue its war. Meanwhile, two million Palestinians are held captive by Israel.

While Hamas may feel it carried out its 7 October operation successfully, it did not plan for a retreat strategy based on any realistic understanding of its position. Sure enough, it now faces yet another catastrophic Palestinian defeat.

Palestinians' inheritance

History shows that international dynamics do not allow Palestinians to achieve political success, no matter their heroism and sacrifice, whether in the First Intifada (1987-1993), the Second Intifada (2000-2004), the Gaza wars of 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2021, or even the fourth Arab-Israeli war (1973, with Egypt and Syria).

This is due in part to Israel's military superiority, but also to the security guarantees it enjoys from major Western countries, especially the United States. No other colonial or settler-colonial state's circumstances have ever been similar.

This is something that Palestinian leadership should understand and act upon. Their priority must be to strengthen the resilience of Palestinians on their land and to solidify and develop their institutions—before, during, and after resistance.

This should be the case regardless of whether Fatah, Hamas, or any other group are in power. Israel's dominance necessitates a positive shift in international and Arab dynamics in favour of the Palestinians. Whether it happens remains to be seen.