The Middle East is holding its breath as it awaits Iran’s response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, shortly after he met Iran’s new president.
In Lebanon, the anticipation is doubled. They await Iran’s reaction, Hezbollah’s response to the Israeli killing of commander Fuad Shukr, and Israel’s response to Hezbollah’s response. Everyone is braced.
The waiting is symptomatic of the all-pervasive state of dread and anticipation affecting all aspects of life in the Arab Levant. The people of the region seem to be waiting for political salvation in perpetuity.
Lebanon and Syria
The Lebanese, for instance, have been waiting since 2022 for a new president to be elected, hoping that this will bring an end to their prolonged crisis, after a 2019 economic collapse, effective bankruptcy, and subsequent political paralysis.
The standard of living there has deteriorated to unprecedented levels. Basic state functions have ground to a halt. There is intense sectarian polarisation. With no state to be loyal to, loyalties become regional, local, religious, and tribal instead.
Likewise, Syrians also find themselves in a state of limbo. They want to escape the stalemate that followed Syria’s devastating civil war, which drew in regional and international powers.
Despite the establishment of semi-independent states in northwestern and eastern Syria, a political solution remains elusive.
The government of Bashar al-Assad refuses to engage with its opponents, whether internal or external, perpetuating an impasse that exacerbates Syrians’ suffering, while a small minority profit from the war.
Palestinians’ leverage
The Palestinians’ wait, meanwhile, pre-dates the 7 October attacks from Gaza on southern Israel, triggering both an unprecedented wave of Israeli brutality and hardening a refusal to end the West Bank occupation and accept a just solution.
This, it must be said, goes hand-in-hand with the Palestinians’ collective failure to envision a future that could galvanise the national will.
