Why the date of 4 August resonates so deeply for Lebanon

The port explosion changed a lot. Lebanese living abroad who had always planned to return suddenly knew they would not, so instead put down deeper roots where they were, building on their new lives.

The feeling of helplessness over Lebanon's horrific monetary and banking collapse that began a year earlier, in 2019, solidified into one of hopelessness. This remains a silent killer. So may lost their life savings, knowing now that they will not get them back.

The speed with which people are leaving seems to be increasing. In 2023, around 180,000 emigrated, compared to an average of around 70,000 in the two years earlier.

To a bleak future

Around half a million Lebanese are believed to have emigrated over the past four years. Most cannot afford to leave legally and many drown in boats while leaving from the coast. The journey is so risky, they have become known as the "boats of death."

As the Lebanese mark the fourth anniversary this week, they are reminded of the disgraceful way in which the investigation into the explosion was buried, and the prospect now of a wider, regional war could begin from the south of the country.

War now would be different to wars fought with Israel in years gone by. 'Smart' drones and deadly acoustic weapons now part of the arsenal.

At the time of the port blast, rumour and speculation were rife. People spoke of having seen 'stealth planes', missiles, or Israeli drones flying in the port area. This meant that Israel was later blamed for hitting Warehouse 12, but such sightings were unfounded.

Looking back, these were warnings and alarm bells that it was time to leave, even though the blast had other causes. It seems so long ago, now, that Lebanon was living through more hopeful times.

A missed opportunity

A quarter of a century has passed since the joy of liberation in southern Lebanon in the year 2000, when Israeli forces left and people were freed from the notorious Khiam prison, the detention centre of the occupying Israelis.

Yet the joy this brought did not last. Instead of establishing momentum from it, Hezbollah was drawn into a Syrian-Iranian territorial dispute over the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms, an area Lebanon also saw as its own.

As the former US Frederic Hof has made clear, this dispute was used an excuse by Hezbollah for it to remain armed, at the behest of Iran.

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The complex and uneasy politics this created led to events such as the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafic Hariri, the 2006 war, and the war in Syria. If that had all been avoided, think how different Lebanon could have been.

Its banks would still have liquidity, its treasury and central bank would not resemble those of a basket case, the depositors would still have their fund and plans intact.

The Lebanese are an intelligent, talented people. They could easily have made the country a hub of cutting-edge technology. Instead, they have had to grapple with the historic and comprehensive bankruptcy of October 2019.

Repairing the leaks

In 2001, when James Wolfensohn visited as president of the World Bank, I was at the Grand Serail, the base of Lebanon's government. He called for public finances to be controlled, spending curbed, and corruption tackled.

I remember him saying a "leaking ship" needs repairing before it sinks. He could not have imagined that 18 years later, Lebanon would suffer one of the worst global economic crises since the middle of the 19th century.

The crimes relating to the Beirut Port blast seem small in comparison to the ongoing massacre in Gaza. Israel could now easily turn its attention north, to Lebanon. Hezbollah calls its engagements with Israel "a war of distraction" in aid of Gaza.

Much will depend on Iran's regional ambitions. Calls for peace from the United Nations no longer have any effect, nor does the International Criminal Court's assessment that Israel has committed "war crimes and crimes against humanity".

On the fourth anniversary of the Beirut Port blast, foreign nationals are being advised by the home countries to leave. Middle East Airlines, the national carrier, now leaves its planes at other airports overnight, in case Beirut Airport is bombed by Israel.

Punished again

There are worries that any new war with Israel will be so brutal and devastating that it will make the port explosion seem insignificant. The Lebanese do not want war. They are already the victims of other crimes related to the misrule of the country.

Over time, shortages of bread, milk, electricity, medicine, and money have led to a feeling of being overwhelmed. Strikingly, sadly, some have even lost sensitivity towards one another. Others stay up late and party, turning away from their problems.

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It is tempting to turn away, to pretend things aren't that bad, to not think that one's home may be blown away as easily as their banked life savings were.

It is also tempting to leave. The villages in the south have been emptying for months, amid increased destruction from Israeli shelling. Displacement has now begun from the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Lebanon once again feels like a hostage, one caught up in hostilities not of its making. Like the band that played on the Titanic as it sank, perhaps the country is just enjoying the music one last time, before it stops.