The phoney campaign has ended. The real battle for the White House will be between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, and it has only just begun.
When Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy on July 21st, Mr Trump was in a commanding position. With a bit over 100 days to turn around his lead, Ms Harris still has enough time to win the presidency. The question is whether she has the ability.
Her task is to make the election a referendum on Mr Trump, who is unpopular outside his devoted MAGA (Make America Great Again) base. If, instead, the election is about the record of the Biden administration and her part in it, she is likely to lose.
But for Ms Harris to turn the spotlight onto Mr Trump, she must also satisfy voters that she is equal to the job of president. Mr Biden’s campaign was doomed because his infirmity kept the focus on him. Despite numerous appearances, he could not dispel the image of a stumbling, befuddled old man unfit to serve a second full term.
The upshot is a race to define Ms Harris. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Mr Trump has plenty of damning material to work with. As a former Attorney-General of California, she is linked to the homelessness, drugs and crime of cities such as San Francisco.
A West Coast centrist is not a centrist in the battleground states she must win. She had a disastrous run in the presidential primaries last time round, dropping out early, having taken leftish positions on subsidising rent and banning fracking.
As Mr Biden’s vice-president, she is lumbered with his record on inflation, immigration and (in Republican eyes) crime.
All along, she has struggled in speeches and interviews. Reportedly, some Biden allies sought to stop Democrats deserting the president by privately warning that she could take his place—as if that were a threat.
What, then, can Ms Harris do? Her chances of success rest on one enormous piece of luck and three tests of her political instincts.
The luck was Mr Biden’s obstinacy. Had he given way sooner, the party could have held an open primary and Ms Harris might have lost. As it was, she saw off her potential rivals within 36 hours. After Mr Biden’s epic stall, that reflected the party’s wish to move on. She inherited a ready-made campaign and its cash.
A day of record fundraising revealed Democrats’ relief at their new, younger candidate. Simply by being 59, she has turned the issue of age, which devastated Mr Biden, back onto Mr Trump, who is now the oldest nominee in history.
But luck will not be enough. To win, Ms Harris must also pass those political tests. The first is to articulate the convictions that will be the foundation for her presidency, without lapsing into promises to hand out welfare cheques.
Her identity as the first black and South Asian woman to run for president could, if handled right, make her a compelling symbol of the American dream.
Rather than letting progressives pull her to the left, she should back pragmatic policies that serve ordinary Americans. Mr Trump, she can say, is out to serve himself.
This will mean touting the accomplishments of Mr Biden’s presidency more effectively than he could—in particular, America’s most significant climate legislation ever.
But it also means facing up to the Biden administration’s poor record on immigration with the help of a tough plan for the southern border. In contrast to Mr Biden, she must acknowledge voters’ struggle with inflation.
She should continue to speak out strongly for women’s reproductive rights, a winning issue—and that involves being aware of Republican traps claiming that this means the unrestricted abortions late in pregnancy which most Americans reject. When pressed, as she will be, she should make clear that she thinks trans women have an unfair advantage in competitive women’s sports.
Ms Harris’s second test is what she makes of having been a prosecutor and a state attorney-general. She may be tempted simply to bash away at Mr Trump as a convicted felon.
Instead she should also use her experience as the foundation for a broad argument that she can be trusted to defend American values at home and abroad.
This starts with the rule of law, including in tackling violence and street crime, so as to counter the accusation that Democrats are soft on both.
She could contrast her support of an independent legal system with Mr Trump’s plan to deploy the Department of Justice against his foes. And she should endorse America’s global role as the guardian of norms and rules.
Mr Trump has a real-estate tycoon’s view of strength as simply muscle; in fact, strength is enhanced by being rooted in principle.
Ms Harris’s third test is to offer America hope. In a vicious election powered by fear and loathing, she may be tempted to peddle apocalyptic visions of a second Trump term.
Better to use humour and optimism. Like any bully, her opponent is vulnerable to mockery. An upbeat Ms Harris looking to the future will do well against a sullen, vengeful Mr Trump enraged about the past.
Encouragingly, her first official rally, in Milwaukee on July 23rd, was fizzing with enthusiasm. This was not the awkward, unconvincing candidate of four years ago. After Mr Biden’s halting delivery, her words were full of vitality.
But Ms Harris is the underdog. Her first big decision—her vice-president—is a chance to catch up and plant her campaign in the centre ground.
Josh Shapiro, the eloquent governor of Pennsylvania, could help in a must-win state. Mark Kelly, a senator from Arizona, another battleground state, would also add to the ticket—and it would rile Mr Trump to face an ex-astronaut.
Be warned, however: Ms Harris is running a rushed operation. If her campaign starts to go awry, recriminations about her uncontested nomination will soon follow.
By contrast, Mr Trump, having survived an assassination attempt, enjoys an unshakeable hold on his party. And yet his campaign’s attempt to redefine him as a unity candidate at the Republican convention crumbled with his rambling and mean-spirited acceptance speech. That makes him beatable.
After months of desultory campaigning, Americans have a race on their hands, and a good thing too. At a perilous time for their country and the world, they deserve a real contest.
