EXCLUSIVE: European push to end long isolation of Syria’s regime

First of the "Big Seven"

Since Western and Arab countries withdrew their ambassadors from Damascus in early 2012 to protest the "unacceptable violence" by the Syrian government against its citizens following mass protests, some countries have maintained some sort of a diplomatic presence mainly at the chargé d'affaires level.

The European Commission, Japan, Switzerland, and Norway have resumed their "humanitarian" activities in Damascus, coinciding with increased rapprochement and the appointment of Arab ambassadors to the city. Additionally, some Western countries have appointed envoys in their capitals to engage with the Syrian opposition.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani announced on Friday the appointment of Stefano Ravagnan, the current special envoy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to Syria, as the resident ambassador in Damascus. This marks the first such step by a member of the "Big Seven."

Currently, there are six EU embassies in Damascus: Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. Other "G7" countries, including the US, Japan, the UK, Canada, France, and Germany, have not yet reappointed ambassadors to Syria.

The letter by the seven EU foreign ministers states that the Syrian conflict has lasted over 13 years, causing "unprecedented humanitarian suffering and the world's largest displacement crisis, with record numbers of Syrian refugees registered in neighboring countries and Europe."

The letter notes that the current European strategy dates back to 2017 and states that "since then, the situation on the ground in Syria and around has changed significantly. The Syrian regime has regained control of around 70% of the territory, while the areas outside its control also consolidated themselves."

Syrian government forces control two-thirds of Syria's 185,000 square kilometers, while the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control about 23% in the northeast. Turkish-backed factions and the Turkish army control the remaining areas in the north and northwest.

The ministers stated that "while the UN-led political process regrettably has not advanced, Syria was readmitted into the League of Arab States and normalized bilateral relations with major players like Saudi Arabia creating a new regional dynamic. In the meantime, the humanitarian situation in the country has further deteriorated and the economy is in shambles. Syrians continue to leave in large numbers, putting additional strain on neighbouring countries, in a period when tension in the area is running high, risking new refugee waves."

The"Non-Paper"

The ministers presented the "non-paper" to Borrell and the Political and Security Committee for official discussion. It includes explicit analyses and proposals.

"Due to the support of Russia and Iran, the regime could not only survive but also regain control of around 70% of the territory, while the areas outside its control also consolidated themselves, albeit in a political limbo. Since 2020, the internal fault lines are static, although not pacified. The Russian aggression against Ukraine negatively impacted our relations with Russia also on Syria," it reads.

The document continues: "In 2023, many Arab countries, under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, reversed their approach to Damascus and decided to re-admit Syria in the Arab League and to open a dialogue with Damascus. This has also led to a de facto halt in EU-LAS-relations. The UN-led political process is stuck. The Special Envoy could not advance the Geneva Process or the Constitutional Committee. His step-by-step approach has not yielded any results so far. Therefore, a political solution in line with UN resolution 2254 seems out of reach while the humanitarian crisis is becoming worse coupled with an imminent economic collapse."

While the UN previously spoke of a "political transition" under the "Geneva Declaration" of 2012, the Security Council adopted Resolution 2254 at the end of 2015, which emphasized a "political process" in Syria.

The "non-paper" states that in light of developments on the ground and in the region, the EU should take a "realistic and sustainable approach".

"We therefore propose to review and assess the results achieved so far, the effectiveness of our actions and instruments, and options to adjust our approach. Our goal is a more active, outcome-driven, and operational Syria policy. This would allow us to increase our political leverage, the effectiveness of our humanitarian assistance and early recovery approach. We shall also contribute to achieving the conditions for safe, voluntary, and dignified returns of Syrian refugees in accordance with UNHCR standards."

The Security Council adopted a resolution permitting the funding of "early recovery" projects in Syria, focusing on areas such as electricity, health, and education. However, Western countries remain divided on these initiatives. The EU has hosted a series of donor conferences in Brussels to secure financial commitments, with the most recent in May resulting in pledges of about seven billion euros (grants and loans), including 2.2 billion from the EU. The EU says it has provided over 33 billion euros for humanitarian operations in Syria over the past decade.

Sanctions aren't working

The EU imposed a series of sanctions on Syria after 2011, targeting official institutions, government officials, businessmen, and economic sectors, including oil.

It has renewed these sanctions until June 2025. The US also imposes sanctions on individuals and officials and adheres to the "Caesar Act," which is set to expire on December 20. Efforts are underway to prevent its extension, despite the current consensus in Congress to extend it until 2032.

The European "seven-country document" concludes that international sanctions have negatively affected the wider population while exerting little leverage on decision-makers, although the introduction of wide humanitarian exemptions is extremely beneficial.

"The regime is erroneously pushing the narrative that sanctions are the reason for the economic collapse and hardship in the country, declining its own responsibility in it," it said.

The document emphasizes that Syria's future is "central for European security" due to the continuing illegal immigration and refugee crisis.

Ten Proposals

The document, sent by the foreign ministers of seven European countries, presents ten proposals formulated as questions, including: "How do we assess the validity of the six goals set by the strategy? Should the EU increase its diplomatic capacity by appointing a special envoy to Syria (...) mandated to meet all parties, which would help reduce the impression of an EU  internal division, where some countries engage with Damascus while others remain totally opposed?"

It adds: "Should the EU better balance its approach to the parties? The EU is supporting the "moderate opposition" while keeping distance to the regime (…). How do we evaluate the role and the capacity of the political opposition that the EU is actively supporting through the Peace Initiative Fund?

The proposals address the role of the private sector and civil society, emphasizing the need to " further develop the EU's early recovery approach in order to meet the long­ term needs of the Syrian people and to avoid a lost generation scenario."  

They also address the need to achieve "the conditions for a safe, voluntary, and dignified return of Syrian refugees," and think about "exploring soft power tools, such as cultural diplomacy," and "why is cultural heritage protection considered a red line in negotiations?"

Other proposals include "enhancing the EU's cooperation with the UN Special Envoy to Syria in order to support their work as well as the resumption of the work of the Constitutional Committee in line with UNSC Resolution 2254."

The document also raises this question: "Shouldn't we engage strategically with the countries of the region that have decided to reengage with the Syrian regime?"