Will F-16s help Ukraine roll back Russian battlefield gains?

In a speech to the Reagan Foundation this week, Zelensky called on US officials to lift the restrictions Washington has placed on the use of American weapons, which he said would help thwart Russian attacks on key Ukrainian cities, such as the eastern stronghold of Kharkiv, one of the main targets of Russia's latest offensive.

In particular, Zelensky is pushing the US for permission to deploy long-range weapons that can target airfields hundreds of miles inside Russia. The Ukrainians insist these bases are being used to conduct Russian attacks against major Ukrainian population centres using missiles and drones, with some of them packed with sufficient explosive material to destroy a building in a single strike. The Ukrainian military claims Russia is launching around 3,500 missiles at Ukrainian targets each month.

"We can protect our cities from Russian guided bombs if American leadership makes a step forward and allows us to destroy Russian military aircraft on their bases," Zelensky said in his speech.

While US President Joe Biden gave authorisation for Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons against some targets inside Russia, concerns that Ukrainian attacks inside Russia could lead to an escalation in the conflict have meant that restrictions have remained in place on striking targets deep within Russia, such as those being used to conduct the recent wave attacks against Ukraine.

Welcome boost

Even so, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's announcement at the NATO summit that the first batch of F-16 fighter jets is about to be transferred to Ukraine will provide a welcome boost to Zelensky, who has consistently warned that his country is desperately short of air cover to defend itself against Russia. The aircraft have the ability to conduct strikes deep within Russia—assuming the US grants them permission to conduct such operations.

Speaking on the summit's sidelines, Blinken said the F-16s were being transferred from Denmark and the Netherlands. "And those jets ... will be flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer to make sure that Ukraine can continue to effectively defend itself against the Russian aggression," the top US diplomat said.

Ukraine first made a bid to be supplied with F-16s in late 2022, when it was enjoying one of its most successful phases on the battlefield, recapturing the strategically important cities of Kharkiv in the east and Kherson in the south. At first, Biden was opposed to transferring the jets to Ukraine after a number of European countries equipped with the US-made fighters offered to donate them to Ukraine's war effort.

Even though the fighters are owned and operated by the Europeans, the US still retains the right to restrict their transfer to third parties. Biden's concerns about escalating the conflict with Russia initially prompted him to oppose the move, before he was eventually persuaded to change his mind after coming under intense pressure from his European allies.

Superior aircraft

After the US authorised the transfer of the warplanes, Ukrainian pilots were required to undergo intensive training to be able to fly them. Now that training has been completed, the process is underway to transfer the first batch of F-16s, which are viewed as being superior to Russian warplanes, even if the total number of aircraft destined for Ukraine fell well short of the numbers Zelensky claims are required to provide effective air cover for his country.

NATO countries have said they will send a total of 65 F-16s to Ukraine, while Zelensky has said his country needs at least 128 to offset Russia's air superiority. Nevertheless, the delivery of the first batch of F-16s will not only provide a significant boost to Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian attacks but also reflects NATO's deepening commitment to the Ukrainian cause, which could one day result in Kyiv becoming a fully-fledged member of the 32-nation alliance.

Apart from announcing the delivery of the F-16s, Blinken also announced that alliance leaders had agreed on a "well-lit bridge" leading to Ukraine's eventual membership of NATO. While achieving full NATO membership might still be years from being achieved, becoming a member of the 32-strong alliance would do more to secure Ukraine's long-term future than any amount of F-16s.