Iran is headed for a second round of presidential elections after no candidate secured the required 50% of the vote to win the election, which saw record-low turnout. (It was around 40%—the lowest since the 1979 revolution.)
Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardline conservative Saeed Jalili will compete in the run-off vote set to take place on 5 July. But regardless of who wins in the second round, Iran's international and regional policies—including its support for militias—will largely remain the same. Domestically, expect little change, either.
Same movie on repeat
Iran's election looks like a movie we've all seen before—the same script, same director, but a different protagonist. As observers, we can only critique the lead character's performance.
While some hold out hope that a reformist president could improve Iran's relations with neighbouring states by curbing its support for militias, this is highly unlikely. Let's not forget that it was under the reformist president, Hassan Rouhani, that Iran's military intervention to keep Bashar al-Assad in power was at its peak. He also oversaw the Houthi coup against the internationally-recognised government in Yemen.
This only underscores the belief that Iran's president is simply a figurehead and that its foreign policy lies in the hands of the Supreme Leader, in consultation with the Expediency Discernment Council and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
