HTS sheds lesser-of-two-evils image with brutal crackdowns

Losing this perception among residents under its control jeopardises not only HTS’s current standing but also its future viability

HTS sheds lesser-of-two-evils image with brutal crackdowns

On 17 May, reports emerged detailing a brutal crackdown that left numerous protesters injured after an assault by security forces. Witnesses described security forces charging demonstrators with armoured vehicles, wielding batons, firing live ammunition, and deploying tear gas to disperse the crowds.

This crackdown marked a stark departure from the norm that has dominated Syria for over a decade. It was not instigated by the Syrian regime but by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—the de facto governing authority in northwest Syria, where the protests unfolded. Despite the change in the perpetrators' identity, comparisons have been made regarding the striking similarities in the crackdown tactics employed by both parties.

As a result, the threat currently facing HTS extends far beyond the fate of the ongoing protests against its rule. Since its emergence, the group's appeal has largely relied on being perceived as less brutal than the regime. Losing this perception among residents under its control jeopardises not only HTS’s current standing but also its future viability.

Protest triggers

Discontent with HTS erupted over a widespread arrest campaign targeting hundreds of individuals, including senior group members, on charges of espionage. This sparked small-scale protests in the summer of last year. However, demonstrations escalated in late February when HTS leadership decided to release most of the detainees, revealing they had been falsely accused based on confessions obtained under torture.

Shortly after, reports emerged that a rebel fighter had died under torture in HTS custody five months earlier due to the same false espionage charges. HTS then admitted to the killing of the detainee and the burying of his body without informing family members, further fuelling public anger.

Since then, protests have continued to spiral, drawing increasing numbers and spreading to new areas in several areas of Idleb and the western parts of rural Aleppo. Every Friday, protestors have turned out in their dozens and sometimes hundreds across HTS-held parts of northwestern Syria, including Idlib city, the group's de facto capital.

While participation in the protests is limited relative to the overall population in HTS-held areas, local communities, especially families of detainees, have been notable participants. Released detainees have also joined the demonstrations, sharing their firsthand accounts of mistreatment. Additionally, rival groups, particularly Hizb al-Tahrir and former HTS members, have participated in the protests.

Every Friday, protestors have turned out in their dozens and sometimes hundreds across HTS-held parts of northwestern Syria.

Grievances and demands

The protesters' demands encompass a broad spectrum of grievances, with a notable focus on halting security violations perpetrated by HTS, particularly within prisons and securing the release of detainees. Moreover, there is a fervent call for systemic changes in governance, advocating for the disbandment of the General Security Service and the establishment of a new Shura Council.

Amidst the chants reverberating through the protests, echoes for the dissolution of HTS's General Security Service, the inception of a fresh Shura Council resound prominently, and the establishment of a democratically elected governing body to supplant the group's affiliated Salvation Government.

However, the grievances extend beyond matters of governance. Economic woes serve as a potent fuel for dissent, with demonstrators articulating a pressing need for policy reforms to address the worsening financial landscape. They indict HTS for exacerbating economic hardship through its monopolisation of key sectors and critique the tax policies implemented by the Salvation Government. These economic burdens manifest in soaring unemployment rates, inflationary pressures, and widespread poverty, exacerbated by dwindling humanitarian aid from international organisations.

Recent protests have taken a more confrontational tone, with demonstrators vociferously demanding the ousting of HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani. Accusations hurled at the militant leader depict him as a "government agent," underscoring the deep-seated mistrust and animosity festering within the protest movement.

Offering a carrot

HTS initially attempted to quell protests by offering concessions and promising reforms. On 1 March, they announced several measures, including the release of detainees cleared of charges, arresting implicated investigators, forming a judicial committee, reviewing security procedures, visiting prisons, and considering a general amnesty. Following this, they set up a Judicial Committee to hear detainee claims, a medical committee to assess released detainees' health, and a financial committee to address material losses.

Al-Julani convened a consultation meeting with the Shura Council, the Salvation Government, and civil society representatives to address demands and recommendations for improving security, economic, and living conditions in HTS-held areas. He pledged to reform the group's security apparatus and enhance its judicial and supervisory processes.

At the Shura Council level, HTS formed eight community committees to address resident concerns and resolve issues. A Supreme Elections Committee was also established to ensure fair representation in the election process. Once formed, the General Shura Council will oversee legislation, government performance, and public oversight.

The Salvation Government responded by offering a conditional general amnesty for prisoners and reducing building permit fees. They eliminated security approval requirements for ownership transfers and formed a committee to devise electoral procedures for local councils. A General Security Service was also established under the Ministry of Interior's oversight.

Protesters have called for systemic changes in HTS governance and for the disbandment of the General Security Service.

sUsing the stick

Despite the announced promises and measures, protestors remained unpacified as the amnesty failed to secure the release of detainees related to their cause. HTS has also failed to disclose the fate of missing persons, raising concerns about their survival.

Although the scale of protests had decreased, the arrest of a prominent activist in Ariha, Idlib, earlier this month reignited large demonstrations. Protests subsequently spread across Idlib and northern Aleppo provinces. The most significant occurred on 12 May outside the military court in Idlib, where protestors demanded the release of detainees and established a protest tent.

On 14 May, HTS security forces reportedly assaulted demonstrators and dismantled the protest tent. Activists claim that security forces attacked protestors, fired live ammunition, and pursued them through Idlib city, causing injuries through beatings, stone-throwing, and skirmishes. In contrast, HTS issued a statement alleging a brawl between protestors and Idlib elders that required security intervention without justifying the tent's removal.

The next day, al-Julani warned protestors, stating their demands had "deviated from their true course." He demanded the protests end, claiming most of the movement's demands had been met and threatened action against anyone causing disturbances. This followed a speech by the Salvation Government's Interior Minister, who threatened to "strike with an iron fist."

Despite these threats and security measures to block roads, anti-HTS demonstrations took place across various HTS-held areas on 17 May. They quickly turned violent as HTS security forces reportedly charged protesters with armoured vehicles in Binnish and used batons, live bullets, and tear gas to disperse crowds in Jisr al-Shughur.

The Salvation Government deflected blame for the heavy-handed breakup of protests, issuing a statement that protesters had attacked security checkpoints with sticks, knives, and rocks, injuring some security forces.

HTS has long been the lesser of two evils when compared to the Syrian regime, as it has historically been less brutal and more pragmatic towards local communities. Therefore, the group's next moves towards future protests are crucial in determining how long that perception will prevail among the residents of northwest Syria.

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