Putin zeroes in on Ukraine win with Kharkiv offensive
The latest Russian push in northeastern Ukraine reflects Moscow’s determination to take advantage of Western dithering and seize the initiative on the battlefield
REUTERS/Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy
Rescuers inspect a residential building damaged during a Russian missile attack, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kharkiv, Ukraine May 14, 2024.
Putin zeroes in on Ukraine win with Kharkiv offensive
It is surely no coincidence that the latest upsurge in Russian military activity around the strategically important Ukrainian city of Kharkiv is taking place at the same time that Russian President Vladimir Putin is undertaking a radical overhaul of his war cabinet.
While Western leaders have spent the last few months dithering over the amount of aid they are prepared to give Ukraine to support its war against Moscow, Putin has been working hard to improve the performance of Russian forces on the battlefield.
Having suffered a number of humiliating setbacks during the first two years of fighting, including the recapture of Kharkiv by Ukrainian forces in September 2022, Putin has made it clear that he has no intention of giving up on his quest to emerge victorious from the Ukraine conflict.
In the past few months, the Russian economy has been placed on a war footing, with Russia’s military-industrial complex producing munitions and equipment at a level not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
On 31 March, Putin marked his re-election to serve a fifth term as president by signing a decree to conscript a further 150,000 Russian citizens for military service, thereby providing much-needed reinforcements to bolster Russian front-line forces that have suffered significant casualties during the past two years.
The latest Western intelligence estimates put the number of Russian troops killed or injured at a staggering 400,000, while the Russian military has lost around half of its military hardware.
The latest upsurge in Russian military activity in Kharkiv coincided with a radical overhaul of Putin's war cabinet.
Eye on the prize
Undeterred by the scale of these setbacks, it is clear that Putin has no intention of ending his so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine. On the contrary, all the evidence suggests that the Russian leader is determined to double down on his attempts to declare victory in Ukraine.
In this context, the latest Russian offensive against the Kharkiv area of northeastern Ukraine reflects Moscow's determination to take advantage of Western dithering and seize the initiative on the battlefield.
While the Ukrainian military claims that it has the Kharkiv situation "under control", there are mounting concerns among senior Ukrainian officers that the recent upsurge in Russian military activity could be the opening salvoes in a far bigger offensive.
Speaking to Ukrainian TV this week, Gen Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency, warned that Russia had stationed small assault units near Ukraine's Sumy region in preparation for another Russian offensive in the north.
Gen Budanov had earlier told the New York Times that he expects the assault on Sumy as soon as the situation in Kharkiv is stabilised, as Russia attempts to divert Ukrainian resources away from other parts of the frontline.
The recent increase in Russian military activity in Ukraine follows months of debate among Western leaders, especially in the US, over how much aid they are prepared to provide to Ukraine. A $61bn aid package for Kyiv that was originally proposed by the Biden administration at the end of last year only received Congressional approval after months of bitter argument between Democrats and Republicans.
On April 23, 2024, in Washington, DC, the Senate passed a $95 bn foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
The subsequent delays in the delivery of this vital aid package, including much-needed artillery shells and air defence systems, have enabled the Russians to regroup, thereby raising the prospect that Russian forces might finally be able to seize the initiative on the battlefield.
Advantage Moscow
While NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg continues to insist that, as he stated last month, it is "not too late for Ukraine to prevail" in the conflict, other military experts believe that the amount of time it will take for the new munitions supplies to reach Ukraine's front line positions will play to Moscow's advantage.
The Russian leader certainly appears to be losing no time in his efforts to take advantage of the disarray in Western ranks to turn the tide of the conflict to his advantage.
The upsurge in fighting in northeastern Ukraine has also been accompanied by a radical overhaul of Moscow's senior political leadership, with Sergei Shoigu, Putin's long-serving defence minister, being replaced by Andrei Belousov, a high-ranking Kremlin economist. The appointment was made after Shoigu faced criticism over his inability to overcome bureaucratic inertia undermining Moscow's war effort.
Appointing an economist as defence minister, therefore, reflects Putin's determination to maintain Russia's economy and society on a war footing, a move he believes is vital if he is ultimately to claim victory in Ukraine.
