Russia changes tone on Ukraine 'war' after Moscow terror attack

"This is a special military operation de jure. But de facto, in fact, for us, it turned into a war after the collective West more and more directly increased the level of its involvement in the conflict."

He said it was Russia's duty to "fully liberate" the four regions of Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia (annexed by Russia in September 2022).

Multiple messages

Peskov had multiple messages for multiple audiences. For Russians, he called for mobilisation, endurance, greater support for the war effort, and mental preparedness for a potentially long campaign still subject to significant shifts.

He blamed the West for this change in attitude at home because it sided with Ukraine, which is now targeting Russian infrastructure and conducting what he called "terrorist operations to demoralise Russian citizens and incite chaos".

Despite Islamic State (IS) having taken responsibility for the Crocus City Hall attack on 22 March, the Kremlin insists on blaming Kyiv and "Western mobsters".

For Kyiv, there was a warning against it broadening the scope of the conflict, as Russia underscored its commitment to the four Ukrainian provinces it annexed, declaring them an "essential" part of the Russian Federation.

It seemed to suggest that any aggression against these four areas would be seen as an attack on Russia itself, as Moscow signalled its determination to secure complete military control of all the lands administratively linked to these regions.

Peskov's final message was to the West. Russia was ready to retaliate against any NATO military presence on Ukrainian soil, which it saw as a legitimate target.

This may relate to, and be a response to, French President Emmanuel Macron's suggestion that NATO troops may start to support troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Parsing Peskov's politics

Peskov's acknowledgement of Russia's "war" in Ukraine follows similar comments from other Russian officials.

In May 2022, just three months after the invasion, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West of orchestrating a full war against Russia, adding that he expected it to be a long campaign.

"The US and its allies are intensifying their endeavours to restrain Russia through an extensive array of tactics," he said.

A year later, in June 2023, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu told army graduates that "the entirety of the Western world is waging a genuine war against Russia".

In the presence of President Vladimir Putin, he said that the Russian military would "exert every possible effort to safeguard the nation's security".

Analysts suggest that Peskov's remarks confine Russia's territorial objectives to the four annexed provinces, stoking speculation that these could be the boundaries of a potential settlement as Moscow envisioned.

Kyiv rejects the idea outright, but this would have to change before any agreement could be reached. A cut in US support may force Kyiv's hand.

Russia has also previously made any peace deal conditional on Kyiv giving up its claim over the four areas. Peskov said as much in December 2022. He sparked fresh attention and controversy by repeating it now in such stark terms.

Clues in the comments

Given that he is the Kremlin's official spokesman, the remarks appear to reveal the contours of Putin's current Ukraine policy. It also highlights Russia's red lines regarding NATO and any potential escalation.

It came after NATO's biggest military exercises since the end of the Cold War.

Its 'Steadfast Defender' manoeuvres began in January and ran until May, and involved 90,000 troops running land, sea, and air exercises.

In Berlin in early March, three European states—Germany, France, and Poland—unveiled a coalition to supply Ukraine with long-range weaponry.

However, much has been made of Germany's refusal to supply Kyiv with its Taurus missiles.

In the months ahead, this trio's commitment will be tested, as warmer weather means that Russian and Ukrainian troops will intensify their attacks.

Of the two, it seems likely that Moscow will take the offensive to broaden the conflict, given its overwhelming superiority of weapons and manpower.

This will push the West's already-wavering support to the limit. The US may simply opt-out.

Tensions could easily extend to the separatist Transnistria region in Moldova or the Suwalki Gap between Lithuania and Poland. Europe needs to be ready, but it isn't.

Declarations of war

Russia is still some way off a formal declaration of war, Putin has called it "a defensive action to protect Russia and Russian speakers from NATO aggressors" as recently as February.

This allows Russia an element of diplomatic flexibility and is unlikely to change any time soon. An uncontrolled escalation is not in Russia's best interests.

A declaration of war in Russia is unlikely for another reason: its constitution.

This requires external attacks on its territory or the annexation or occupation of its land, neither of which applies in Ukraine.

Furthermore, a declaration of war in Russia automatically ushers in martial law at home, which would be unpopular, with its economic consequences and day-to-day disruption.

Practically, formally declaring war does not aid Russia's military effort. Its economy is already on a war footing, there is no appetite for a general mobilisation, and the army already uses all available modern conventional weaponry in Ukraine.

Overall, Peskov's statement looks more like a warning against any deeper Western involvement, especially direct intervention or the kind of practical support that helped Ukraine regain territory in the autumn of 2022.

That is precisely what Ukraine was hoping to replicate in the summer of 2024, but US Republicans are in thrall to Donald Trump, who in turn is in thrall to Putin, so funds and weapons that would make a difference are stalled.

It could yet be Russia's year.