Following World War II, the General Assembly of the United Nations prepared to partition Palestine into a Jewish state and an Arab state as per the recommendation of a special committee it had set up. It was a defining moment. The UN was a new and important international forum, and it was tackling one of the thorniest issues in international relations: how to accommodate both Jews and Palestinians in the same land.
Ahead of the key partition vote, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) prepared a document on the possible repercussions of partition, including the potential for Arab-Israeli conflict. That document has only recently been declassified.
Here, Al Majalla publishes the concerns of US intelligence officials and diplomats, including the most prescient and compelling points from this historic, top-secret, and fascinating report.
Predicting war
The authors knew the importance of US support and felt the Jews would not last more than two years “without external assistance, both human and material.” They were mindful of the impact of partition on US influence and relations in the region, so they knew how sensitive this all was to national security. The first page, therefore, explicitly prohibits its transfer or disclosure in any form to unauthorised individuals.
For instance, it shows that Washington knew there would be war if a Jewish state were established. “Arabs in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, along with Palestinians, driven by nationalism and religious fervour, are determined to resist any force or coalition attempting to establish a Jewish state in Palestine,” it reads.
“While it is not expected that Arab governments will officially declare war, they will not try to prevent their people (especially zealous tribes) from joining the battle and may even encourage such actions and provide secret assistance, as well.”
The CIA knew about regional military capabilities, writing that “in terms of organisation, Arab forces will vary between well-organised quasi-military units and less organised tribal formations, predominantly engaging actively against the Jews at any given time between 100,000 and 200,000 individuals.”
However, there was a strong will on both sides. “The Zionists... are determined to have a state in Palestine, or according to extremist elements, in Palestine and East Jordan together,” the CIA document reads.
“The Jews will be able to recruit around 200,000 fighters in Palestine, in addition to being somewhat supplemented by volunteers and conscripts from abroad. The Jewish armed groups in Palestine are distinguished by their good equipment and their good training in special forces tactics.”
However, beyond the short-term, the intelligence analysts did not see sustainability. “Without significant external assistance in terms of manpower and resources, they will struggle to endure for more than two years.”
Concern for US policy
They also worried that “the United States, by supporting the partition plan, has lost much of its authority in the Middle East”. Moreover, if partition were imposed on Palestine, “the resulting conflict will seriously undermine the social, economic, and political stability of the Arab world, and our commercial and strategic interests will be in grave danger,” they said.
“Poverty, unrest, and despair—which communist propaganda thrives on—will increase throughout the Arab world, and Soviet agents (some of whom have already been smuggled into Palestine as Jewish refugees) will spread to other Arab countries and attempt to organise so-called democratic movements like those in Greece.”
The authors also felt that the US could get caught up unwittingly because if the UN recommended partition, “it will be morally obliged to take steps to enforce that same plan, with the major powers acting as instruments of implementation”. They added: “There is no need for us to point out the potential danger of such a development on US-Arab and US-Soviet relations.”
Below are more detailed excerpts from the document as it was originally written.
Introduction
On September 1, 1947, the United Nations Special Committee on Palestine (UNSCOP) concluded its report, with the majority of its members recommending partition as the best solution to the Palestine issue.
Despite vehement opposition from Arab states and the possibility of the partition resolution not obtaining the required two-thirds majority in the United Nations General Assembly, there is no doubt that this kind of solution to the Palestine problem has been studied more seriously and has received more widespread acceptance than any other solution.
Should the United Nations General Assembly – which is currently discussing the partition proposal – accept the partition of Palestine by a two-thirds majority, the following situation would ensue:
1. A sovereign Jewish state would be established, encompassing a large part of Palestinian territory
2. A significant number of immigrants would be allowed to enter this Jewish state.
3. Arabs, not only in Palestine but throughout the entire Middle East, would strongly oppose both 1) and 2) above, and armed conflicts would erupt between Jews and Arabs.
4. Assistance in the form of manpower, weapons, and supplies would be available to both Jews and Arabs from outside Palestine.
5. The United Nations would not immediately put together an international police force to maintain peace in Palestine.
Based on these assumptions, three questions must be addressed:
1. How will the Arab-Israeli conflict develop, and what would the resulting consequences be?
2. How will the stability of the Middle East be affected?
3. How will American strategic and commercial interests be impacted?
To answer these questions, it is necessary to examine the political situation resulting from partition and the military developments that may arise from this situation.
