Diplomats are racing to broker a ceasefire agreement in time to avoid what many see as a worst-case scenario: An Israeli offensive in the southern city of Rafah during the upcoming holiday of Ramadan.
The upcoming month-long Muslim holiday, which is due to start around 10 March, typically sees spikes in tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. But this year, the threat is much broader and could have an impact across the region.
Israel has warned that if a deal that would see the release of Israeli hostages still held in Gaza is not brokered by then, it will launch an offensive against Rafah.
Many in Israel held the view that, regardless of the talks, Israeli troops would have to eventually operate in a city where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have taken refuge.
The logic is simple: Rafah is the last main urban area where Hamas can hide.
A recent hostage-release operation carried out by the Israeli military, resulting in the rescue of two hostages, also served to confirm suspicions that many of the hostages are likely being held in Rafah.
If the idea is to “finish off” Hamas and rescue the hostages, then the next logical step, in the minds of many Israelis, is to go to Rafah.
But the international warnings are also dire.
Rafah is massively overcrowded. If Israel operates in the same way it did so far, the sheer concentration of civilians will compound the damage we’ve already seen elsewhere exponentially.
In pictures: UN warns Israeli attack on Rafah could lead to 'slaughter'
Breaking point?
Israelis have often dodged international pressure, but there are signs that this time, the warnings are serious. They may have come to a breaking point in the campaign that followed the 7 October Hamas terror attacks.
The US has been far more vocal about its desire not to see a Rafah offensive — both publicly and behind closed doors. European countries have released a series of coordinated statements.
Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, have also warned against the Rafah offensive — a warning Israel cannot brush aside if it seeks to normalise ties in the future.
Though the Egyptian Foreign Minister denied it ever threatened to void its peace treaty with Israel, Cairo did express unprecedented opposition to an Israeli operation in Rafah.
An Israeli offensive in Rafah would put Cairo in an impossible position.
Egypt would have to choose between either accepting hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees, at the risk of being accused of collaborating with attempts to permanently displace Palestinians, or shutting its door and sharing the blame for the human cost of the operation.
Threats to reconsider the peace treaty with Israel may not have been made, but the risks for Egypt’s stability are real.
