Gaza and the 'day after' lie

Impossible reconstruction

Leaving aside the enormous and irreparable human and humanitarian toll, Machiavellians find it easy to talk about losses estimated in the tens of billions of dollars as if hidden in a treasure trove. They forget that destructive wars are easy to wage, while the reconstruction war is tough and perhaps even impossible.

There is a lot of evidence struggling to emerge from under the rubble: from Syria to Sudan, Yemen and Libya to Lebanon. Recovery from war does not come with sweet promises or fat cheques. This is especially true given that providing new and sustainable funding for the reconstruction of countries in our current era has become a daydream of a bygone era.

Rebuilding and rehabilitation don't happen with the snap of a finger; construction is more than cement and stone. Many failed models can be seen in more than one country and location.

Can anyone tell us where the promised reconstruction of Syria has gone? How would one describe Beirut's cultural significance today, reduced to a relic after the disintegration of its social, urban, cultural, and economic fabric?

What are Homs and Aleppo without the presence of people, history, heritage, customs, and urbanism? A city holds little worth without its inherent human and social fabric. And what about Yemen, Libya, and Sudan?

Anyone trying to calculate the estimated cost of reconstruction in these countries understands very well how deceiving the promised 'day after' is when the flames of war continue to rage on multiple fronts.

A region reeling from war

Across war-torn Syria, armies, militias, groups and warring groups continue to wreak havoc and destruction. The estimated cost of its reconstruction is around $400bn, as acknowledged by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2018.

Other European and Arab estimates pin the cost at around $800bn, considering the apocalyptic destruction that befell most Syrian cities, making this figure the highest cost in modern history.

On their part, Yemen and Sudan need over $100bn each. Meanwhile, every subsequent warring day in Sudan costs an additional $2mn. Figures on Yemen are hard to come by, but Houthi rule in Yemen inflicted a high human cost in terms of lives lost, famine, crippling poverty and missed opportunities.

In Libya, the cost of losses ranges from $100bn-$500bn, with more suffering expected if warring parties there don't reach a peace agreement soon.

Iraq requires approximately $88bn for reconstruction, while Lebanon is begging for assistance to help pay its army, teachers, judges, and employees but has received no response. If Lebanon finds itself dragged into the war in Gaza, the future looks even more hopeless.

Meanwhile, Egypt is drowning in more than $200bn of debt, $165bn of which is external. This year will be pivotal for the country that has been grappling for over a year with public spending, currency devaluation, and inflation.

In Turkey, inflation has surged to 60% despite Erdogan's electoral promises to fix the economy. This is even worse than Lebanon's inflation in the early 1990s, when it could no longer borrow funds following the Taif Agreement.

According to the World Bank, Ukraine needs about $411bn, of which $135bn is needed to repair the direct damage to buildings and infrastructure.

Bleak picture

These figures paint a bleak picture for Gaza's 'day after'. It will take generations to rebuild, as attracting capital requires a sustained economic and financial effort.

As questions of post-governance in Gaza remain shrouded in uncertainty, any funds secured will likely only reach a small fraction of society due to corruption and chaos.

Reconstruction will not be easy in Gaza and other war-torn countries around the world. It takes decades and begins with agreeing on a political and economic plan with strict conditions and timelines.

Much depends on just how these wars end and the availability of financial resources for countries to launch construction projects. If history is a judge of how this will pan out, the future does not look promising for Gaza.