Prisoner swap success dims Israel's chances of eliminating Hamas

While US President Joe Biden's official stance is to support Israel, arguing that the elimination of Hamas is a "legitimate" objective for the Jewish state, he has also indicated that he is keen to bring the fighting to an end as soon as possible.

Speaking soon after the first batch of Israeli hostages had been released, Biden remarked, "My expectation and hope is that, as we move forward, the rest of the Arab world and the region is also putting pressure on all sides to slow this down, to bring this to an end as quickly as we can."

Divided Israeli public opinion

Another important factor that could limit Netanyahu's ability to maintain Israel's military offensive against Hamas is that Israeli public opinion is deeply divided on the issue.

Hard-line supporters of Netanyahu believe military force is the only way to secure all the hostages' freedom. In contrast, the families and supporters of the remaining hostages believe their release should be secured before any resumption of hostilities takes place.

The Netanyahu government certainly has little interest in seeing the recent pause in the fighting turn into a more permanent ceasefire, as it remains committed to achieving its stated goal of destroying Hamas.

Mission unaccomplished

From the Israeli military's point of view, the mission to destroy Hamas — certainly in terms of the threat it poses to Israel's security — has only been partly fulfilled.

Israel's army has claimed to have so far destroyed around 400 Hamas tunnels in northern Gaza. Army commanders are keen to extend their ground offensive into southern Gaza, claiming that Hamas has a similar network of tunnels operating in the area.

Concern over rising civilian casualties

Any move further south, though, is likely to increase the death toll among Palestinian civilians, which the Palestinian medical authorities claim has already reached 14,000.

With Biden having already warned Netanyahu about the necessity of avoiding unnecessary civilian deaths, Israel would come under renewed pressure if its military offensive continued to result in a significant uplift in civilian casualties.

Hamas's growing popularity

And even if Israel were to succeed in destroying Hamas's infrastructure in Gaza, it would not be able to affect the significant upsurge in support the movement has attracted as a result of its success in securing the release of scores of Palestinian prisoners, as is evident from the pro-Hamas chants that have accompanied recent Palestinian prisoner releases.

Large crowds that gathered on the West Bank to welcome Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli jails as part of the hostage swap chanted slogans such as "From Gaza to Jenin" and "With our soul and our blood, we will redeem you, Hamas," signifying the movement's growing popularity beyond the narrow confined of Gaza.

Mounting frustration with the leadership of President Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority (PA), has been a key factor in the growing rise of Hamas in the West Bank, which previously relied on the two million Palestinians resident in Gaza for its support.

Support for the PA in the West Bank has waned in recent years, with opinion polls showing that only a small minority of Palestinians have a favourable view of the PA, which is seen as a subcontractor to Israel's continued military occupation.

By contrast, Hamas's ability to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners has shown it to be more effective than the PA in the eyes of many Palestinians in championing their cause.

Impact on future diplomatic track

The growing stature of Hamas among the Palestinian population could certainly have profound implications for any future diplomatic efforts to resolve the Palestinian issue once the fighting in Gaza has ended.

Netanyahu has indicated that his preference will be to resume talks with the PA about both the future administration of Gaza and the West Bank.

But after the key role Hamas has played in negotiating and arranging the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, its leaders will insist they cannot be excluded from any future peace talks.

Ultimately, it will be for the Palestinian people, not Israel, to decide who represents their interests in a renewed peace process. If they prefer to pledge their support to Hamas, then the PA's legitimacy to represent the Palestinian cause will be deeply compromised.