Culpability over Homs drone attack shrouded in mystery

Moreover, the military reiterated its commitment to respond with maximum force and hold those individuals accountable. The ongoing brutal military campaign launched against northwestern Syria following the incident is being framed as a response to the drone attack.

While certain rebel groups, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have previously employed modified drones in their attacks, available evidence suggests that they lack the capability to coordinate a synchronised swarm of these deadly drones from their own territories.

According to American and European intelligence sources, the armed opposition's drone capabilities remain rudimentary, with limited range. They are primarily suited for targeting areas relatively close to the frontlines.

This makes the possibility of launching drones from northeastern Syria to strike the military academy 100 kilometres away from the nearest rebel position remote.

The most plausible scenario is that the attack originated from areas under regime control. In this context, HTS should not be viewed as the sole group capable of executing such an assault. The Islamic State (IS) has notably pioneered the weaponisation of civilian drones, manufacturing munitions for acts of violence and exerting influence.

Concerns over regime narrative

The circumstances surrounding the attack, along with the scarcity of information subsequently released, have raised doubts among analysts concerning the regime's narrative. Notably, there is a lack of video footage depicting the attack despite the extensive media coverage of the ceremony.

The regime has also refrained from publishing photos showcasing remnants of the attack drones or the explosives deployed. The absence of these critical pieces of evidence, which aids in identifying the type of drones and their payload, has raised doubts about who is responsible.

Proponents of the regime have raised questions about how the drones managed to reach the military academy without detection. This is particularly perplexing since the academy is situated within a heavily fortified security and military zone equipped with radar systems.

Critics have also highlighted the state of chaos and internal competition among pro-regime forces. This turmoil stems from competing interests among armed factions, security agencies, and local and foreign militias over influence and financial gains. Many of these actors possess drones capable of conducting such attacks to maintain or expand their power.

The government's recent decision to remove military checkpoints from major roads, which produces significant financial revenues for those who man them, is pointed out as a potential motive for carrying out such an attack.

The incident could arguably be leveraged to advocate for reversing the decision and enhancing security measures. The list of such motives is extensive and includes many actors. 

While these motives or lingering disparities do not serve as conclusive evidence implicating pro-regime forces in the attack, particularly due to the absence of concrete proof, they suggest that other actors possess both motive and capability to carry out such a drone offensive.

Despite substantial doubts regarding the guilt of opposition groups, the regime remains resolute in its determination to exact retribution.

Relentless bombardment

Since the incident, an unrelenting barrage of shelling and air strikes has targeted over 1,100 locations in northwestern Syria. This has substantially destroyed critical facilities and infrastructure, resulting in dozens of civilian deaths, hundreds of injuries, and at least 20,000 people being displaced as of 8 October.

This brutal campaign allows the regime to assert that the conflict is far from resolution.

More importantly, it seeks to divert attention from the worsening economic crisis and dissuade criticism of its inability to ameliorate living conditions, which has increased in recent months. Besides, it enables the regime to persist in its punitive measures against civilians in opposition-held areas, preventing them from experiencing any semblance of normalcy.

The ongoing protests against the regime in Sweida, coupled with frequent anti-government sentiments expressed by residents under its control on social media, indicate that the regime's attempts to subdue its populace have fallen short so far.

Nevertheless, it is likely that the regime will continue to employ this last-resort approach, especially since the world has become numb to the killing of hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians.