What a moment of promise – and one of peril – reveal about a world in flux

Two very different events show the diverging paths being taken at a time of upheaval in international politics – one of cooperation and hope, and one of war

What a moment of promise – and one of peril – reveal about a world in flux

Two significant events in recent days have been profoundly revealing about changing global political dynamics and the very different ideas that are shaping them.

The paths that these events open up are likely to be of great consequence for the nations that embark upon them, for their leaders and their people. They show how different parts of the world are heading in very different directions.

The first event brought nations together to use the latest technology to connect continents. Saudi Arabia joined an international effort, announcing it had signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States, as part of an effort to revolutionise links between India and Europe.

It is an ambitious project backed by the European Union as a bloc, the United Arab Emirates and EU members France, Germany and Italy. It will set up a commercial corridor, involving a railway network, electricity infrastructure, hydrogen pipelines and high-speed data cables.

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, described it as a "green and digital bridge connecting continents and civilisations."

The second event could hardly have been more different. It stoked fears of a major arms agreement between two internationally sanctioned dictators.

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, went to Russia, where he met Russia’s President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a state-of-the-art launch facility. Kremlin officials officially denied any formal military agreements between the two isolated nations, but the encounter raised concerns.

Any major agreement to secure ammunition or armaments from North Korea could extend Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The promise of progress v the threat of war

And so these two events create very different pictures of the world: One highlights the promise of progress, offering enhanced stability, economic prosperity, development, increased trade, and better infrastructure for the nations it touches. The other points to more war, destruction and death.

During his announcement of the economic corridor project at the Saudi-Indian Investment Forum, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said: "The economic corridor will serve the shared interests of our nations by bolstering economic connectivity and generating positive impacts for our partners in other countries, as well as the global economy as a whole.”

At the Cosmodrome summit, Kim Jong-un sounded a different tone: "Russia is waging a holy war against the West, and both countries will fight imperialism together.”

It was unequivocal, permanent support for Putin, from the highest level. The supreme leader of the world’s hermit states that Russia had "risen to a sacred fight to protect its sovereignty and security against hegemonic forces."

The contrast between these two moments – as shown so clearly by the words chosen by these two very different leaders – reveals the different dynamics at work.

So does the international reaction to the developments.

Amos Hochstein, the US presidential envoy for energy affairs, said of the corridor initiative: “It is an extremely ambitious project. It will have a very positive impact on the region".

He is right.

The countries involved have many disagreements and differences. But they have set them aside to find unity to harness the promise of substantial mutual progress, for all the people in each nation.

The alignment between Kim and Putin promises only further calamity, for their own people and the citizens of the wider world, not least in Ukraine. There, worries over the boost to Moscow’s ammunition supplies loom large.

The alignment between Kim and Putin promises only further calamity, for their own people and the citizens of the wider world, not least in Ukraine.

Characters of leaders revealed

The connection between the two events may not be immediately apparent. But both encapsulate the destinies of nations.

They reveal the character of leaders – whether they look ahead seeking welfare, stability, and prosperity for their people – or whether they are trapped within narratives of conspiracy and confrontation, even if it means suffering, impoverishment, hunger, and ignorance for their people.

Such choices made by prominent politicians are stark. And so are the consequences of prioritising peril over promise.

We can see how such conspiracy narratives have plagued the Middle East. In Syria, some claim a "conspiracy" targeting Bashar al-Assad for 12 years.

In Lebanon, some claim "Zionist-American conspiracy" against those who identify as the axis of resistance, led by the Hezbollah militia.

In Iraq, factionalised politics obstructs progress to the point of national and international legal action against Yazid ibn Muawiya.

These are devastated nations, with marginalised, impoverished, and starved people, with limited prospects.  

Remarkably, despite these challenges at home and the obvious need to work for progress, the leaders of these nations back far-flung talk of purported holy wars against the forces of evil.

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