Will robots gain the upper hand in an AI-dominated future?

Digital dystopia

The authors argue that AI creates dangerous capabilities that surpass the dictatorial dystopia imagined by the famously bleak futurist George Orwell, in his novel 1984.

And so, the world arrives on the cusp of a new stage of development, perhaps even a new age. AI is there, alongside robotics, 3D printing and the Internet of Things. Combining these cutting-edge capabilities could create machine learning and AI-powered connected devices capable of surpassing human skills and abilities.

That may mean humans will lose substantial control over technological development. And that could be devastating.

Many countries have called for greater control and more explicit regulation of AI, not least because of the limited number of nations and companies that dominate it now. Voices recommending restraint point out there is much more at stake than profits, and that the emerging ethical and legal problems need proper global attention.

The $320bn question

The comprehensive economic consequences of AI are unclear. But it is already certain that productivity will rise and the traditional paths of most economies will be transformed.

Governance will be transformed at all levels, internationally and locally. AI will have profound implications for a range of legal matters, not least intellectual property.

Global investment in AI has risen from about $800mn in 2010 to $78bn in 2021. Estimates suggest the technology will contribute up to $15.7tn to the global economy in 2030, of which $6.6tn will be in added productive value. 

The Middle East is expected to reap about 2% of AI's total global benefits by the decade's end, equivalent to about $320bn.

In terms of labour, a study by Accenture found AI could boost productivity by up to 40% in 2035. A recent report from McKinsey predicted AI will generate additional economic output of around $13tn by 2030, lifting global GDP by 1.2% annually.

These figures, from top-level global consultants, come with AI still in its infancy. The biggest challenge it currently poses is how it can be controlled and what its unintended consequences might be.

There is a risk that AI could add to unequal economic development, widening the digital divide with emerging economies as it is adopted quickly in already advanced nations. The prospect that this could stoke conflict and war is very real.

And AI inequality is already taking place. According to CB Insights, out of 100 promising global AI companies, the United States has 64, followed by the United Kingdom with eight. China and Israel have six each. Canada has 5. So far, there are no Arab companies on the list.

New danger within an older concept

The founding idea of AI – a technology that can run cognitive tasks independently of its human inventors – is not new. It has become revolutionary because the latest incarnation of AI can learn on its own – from experience and over time – without further intervention from its designers.

Here lies the danger. As well as performing some tasks more quickly and efficiently than humans, AI has the potential to make better decisions.

Cartoon: Will AI take over the world?

Humanity has spoken of machine learning since the late 1950s and early 1960s. In 1956, John McCarthy, a cognitive scientist and professor of computer science at Stanford University, proposed that human intelligence could be reproduced: "Every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can in principle be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it."

In 1965, Herbert Simon, the American political scientist and pioneer of AI programming, said "Machines will be capable, within 20 years, of doing any work a man can do."

In the past few years, the prophecies of AI pioneers have arrived.

Terms such as "deep learning," "machine learning," and "natural language processing" are commonplace today. We are using this technology daily, whether we realise it or not. As it is increasingly used, AI develops, generating more and more data.

And data drives its growth – in the way food does for humans. AI's development, in effect, feeds on itself. Its Big Data growth rate is estimated at more than 50% annually since 2010. Its AI innovative powers are becoming more visible and more generative.

Its power is changing the dynamics of global competition, sparking a race to harness its potential. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have already made clear their determination to use AI to diversify their economies and sustain more growth. 

Read more: How the Arab world is adopting a proactive approach to AI

There are already applications in education and training for the new, skilled workforces likely to be in demand. AI is also part of new, more transparent governance systems.

The oil of the future

AI-driven economies will not just integrate the technology into the traditional means of production, they will transform it.

There will be large-scale structural change in markets and employment, with technology that will transcend the current physical and human capital mix.

In the Middle East, some governments are investing in artificial intelligence. These countries — especially the Gulf— see AI application as a historic opportunity to diversify their economies away from oil. 

In fact, AI is being called the "oil of the future" and its application is central to plans to recalibrate their economies.

A report by the International Data Corporation estimates that spending on cognitive and AI systems in the Middle East and Africa region has risen from $37.5mn in 2017 to more than $100mn by 2021, at an annual growth rate of about 33%. This increased spending is due to companies in the region investing heavily in the new technology, supported by governments, as the first users of these technologies.

There is a range of issues of particular significance to the Middle East where AI has specific potential, from volatile oil prices to rapid urbanisation to water scarcity and food security.

Governments in the region are taking on the role of a catalyst by providing significant financial resources and setting long-term plans, targets, and regulatory frameworks for economic efficiencies that could add up to $7bn to their annual budgets.

Leading countries

The UAE leads this growth, followed by Saudi Arabia, where AI is expected to add up to 1.1% to the Kingdom's economic growth rate and 1.6% in the UAE. 

The expected impact in these two economies isn't surprising given their relative investment in AI technology compared to the rest of the region, with both countries ranking in the top 50 in the world on the World Intellectual Property Organisation Global Innovation Index since 2017 in terms of innovation capacity and output.

The two countries have also maintained their advanced positions (28 for the UAE and 31 for the Kingdom out of 62 countries) in Tortoise Media's Global AI Index 2023, while the Kingdom topped the index regarding government AI strategy.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are competing to buy thousands of high-performance Nvidia chips to join the global race for AI. The Kingdom has so far obtained through King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), at least 3,000 of the world's first H-100 chips designed for generative AI at the cost of $40,000 each.

One promising future application of AI, already on the way in the region, is for "Smart Cities". Saudi Arabia's NEOM, which spans an area of 26,500 km2 near the Red Sea, has estimated investments of $500bn and is considered a centre for research, development, and innovation supported by AI and the Internet of Things.

Dubai has also embraced this vision of the future, with the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre and even robot police officers.

Strategic investments

Such investments are part of moves aimed at diversifying economies away from oil dependence. AI has enormous potential here, in an effort made internationally famous by Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 reforms.

Saudi Arabia has set up favourable frameworks for cloud computing and AI development, including partnerships with leading international companies and major global technology initiatives. 

It has pledged government investment of $20bn to establish 300 start-ups by 2030. This is a huge investment compared to the ambitions of some leading European countries such as Germany, which has pledged only €5bn.

In 2017, the UAE launched its "National AI Strategy 2031," part of its 2071 centenary goals. It includes plans for AI in transport, health, space, renewable energy, water, technology, environment, infrastructure, and education.

The UAE also established the first ministry of AI in the world and opened the first university of AI – Mohamed bin Zayed University of AI – in 2019.

Jobs will change, not be lost

The increasing integration of AI technologies will significantly impact the labour market.

Training will need to be transformed for the younger generations. Re-training will also be required across other sections of the workforce, not least in services, public, and private administration, industry, construction, trade, and logistics.

New skills, knowledge, and greater flexibility will be needed to cope with the changes.

But jobs will change, rather than be lost.  

A PwC report indicated that AI could generate 10 million new jobs in the Gulf region alone by 2030. About 46% of workers in the region — compared to 31% globally — are optimistic about AI's ability to improve their jobs rather than pessimistic about eliminating them.

A report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) agrees, finding that job requirements in the region are changing rather than jobs being lost.

Humans may collaborate with AI to improve their performance. The technology — especially generative AI — requires much human input to improve its performance. A paper released in May by Cornell University described how AI models could collapse without human oversight.

But when the new technology and traditional human labour work together, the gains can be huge. In June, a McKinsey report expected AI to automate 60 to 70% of employees' workloads.

Throughout history, every major technological revolution has had positive and negative aspects.

The fears and warnings about AI's potential dangers will not stop the technology from growing or dazzling us with limitless new discoveries, uses, and innovations. It will carry on finding its way into our lives, work, hospitals, factories and universities, whether we like it or not.

Keeping this latest AI revolution completely under human control will be the chief challenge.