Derna floods and R2P: Libyans urgently need our help

The disaster has even seen the deployment to the east of some military formations from western Libya (a move that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago when eastern forces were attacking Tripoli). 

The rival executives in Tripoli and Benghazi have (at least temporarily) put aside their petty disputes over the legitimacy of the country's institutions to coordinate assistance efforts.  The international community— with the United Nations in the lead—  has rallied to the side of the Libyan people. 

This national and international momentum and solidarity is commendable and must be bolstered and, importantly, sustained. 

Long-term damage

The effects of Storm Daniel will plague Libya for years to come. 

There is an opportunity to seize the initiative and to honour the memory of Storm Daniel's victims by harnessing the voice of the Security Council and the expertise and weight of international institutions like the World Bank and the United Nations Develop Program (UNDP), for example, to establish a joint Libyan/international committee to steer a recovery fund. 

Time is of the essence, given the predilection of Libya's predatory ruling class to use the pretext of "sovereignty" and "national ownership" to steer such a process on their own and in a self-interested manner. 

To wit, the head of the Libyan parliament on 14 September unilaterally decided to allocate 12bn Libyan dinars ($ 2.5bn for disaster relief, a mechanism which will no doubt enjoy zero transparency or competence.

Precedent for World Bank assistance

There is a precedent for the World Bank to provide valuable expertise and assistance in post-disaster and post-conflict contexts, including in Lebanon, Haiti, and Yemen.  The Bank could, for instance, conduct a Rapid Damage Assessment to determine the full extent of the damage caused by Storm Daniel and the ensuing floods. 

The Bank could also help the Libyan authorities steer emergency cash assistance transparently and efficiently.  More broadly, the Bank could lend its weight and expertise to forming a reconstruction/recovery fund – a joint national/international committee. 

A carefully selected Libyan expert could lead the committee, and the Libyan authorities could provide the necessary seed money with international partners allocating their own funds.  Such a process could be conducted in an entirely transparent manner. 

Already, the World Bank can claim valuable expertise on Libya: in May, it published a lengthy volume outlining the myriad challenges afflicting Libya, including a chapter which addresses climate change. 

Calamity from climate change

Presciently, the report noted that "By 2020, global temperatures had already increased 1.02°C above preindustrial levels in 1880 (NASA 2021). Temperatures in the southern Mediterranean had risen by 1.5°C (Union for the Mediterranean 2019).

This is faster than the average warming trend, which is set to continue. By 2040, the increase in the temperature will likely be 2.2°C, reaching approximately 4°C by the end of the century (IPCC 2021).

Higher temperatures do not necessarily reduce precipitation, as warmer climates cause more evaporation and warm air can potentially carry more water, resulting in heavier rains (Abramowitz and Bishop 2015).

It is the sad reality that Libya will witness future calamities related to climate change. Preventative measures are urgently required to spare more misery.

Twelve years ago, the international community mobilised on behalf of Libyans but then walked away, leaving unfinished the vital work of nation-building, strengthening institutions, effecting disarmament, enabling human rights protection and establishing accountability mechanisms. 

We are at another such tipping point in the trajectory of this fragile country and its beleaguered population.  The world has a duty of care and a responsibility to help protect the Libyan people from the next disaster – natural or man-made.