Northwest Syria in dire straits amid Turkish lira drop

Adaptation measures backfire

Business owners' efforts to adapt to the Turkish lira's volatility, further drove up prices. Amid this instability, a noticeable increase in purchases made in US dollars, rather than Turkish lira, has been observed, particularly for large-volume transactions. Even Turkish-manufactured goods and domestic products are being purchased in dollars instead of lira, further driving up the prices of these items.

High levels of currency volatility have also led to speculative behaviour among traders and business owners. Many traders reportedly limit sales of certain items during periods of high volatility until exchange rates stabilise to protect their profits.

Those procuring materials from Turkey in Turkish lira often increased the prices of their stored items to safeguard their profit margins when the exchange rate shifted.

Furthermore, the lack of robust consumer protection measures enforced by local authorities allowed traders to act in a manner that safeguarded their interests despite the ramifications for the broader population.

While local markets favoured dollars, salaries for most jobs remained paid mainly in Turkish lira or Syrian pounds, often without routine adjustments for inflation. Consequently, residents are forced to adopt creative ways to cope with the unprecedented rise in cost of living.

Despite the inconvenience, many residents visit multiple shops to compare prices, capitalising on discrepancies due to various exchange rates and profit margins. Some who can afford it opt to buy directly from wholesalers in larger quantities despite the extra time and travel involved.

Dire situation

Additionally, harmful coping mechanisms are on the rise.

Residents commonly borrow money to cover their purchases and pull their children out of school to have them work. Parents are even rationing their food consumption. There's a heightened risk of early or forced marriages as a means to alleviate financial hardship.

Additionally, some people purchase products nearing or past their expiration dates because they are slightly cheaper, despite the risks of food poisoning or serious illnesses.

With aid groups largely unable to fill the needs gap created by major cuts to food aid in recent months, displaced households, among other vulnerable groups, are accumulating more debt and relying heavily on credit for purchases. This could pose protection and safety risks down the line if the debts are not repaid.

Projections from the Turkish central bank paint a grimmer situation, potentially witnessing inflation rates soaring to 58% by year-end, exacerbating the strain on prices and purchasing power in northwest Syria.

Despite these worrisome trends, local authorities are constrained from adopting alternative currencies due to a complex web of political and logistical challenges.

As a result, Syrians, already grappling with dire economic circumstances, have no choice but to hold onto the hope that they can endure long enough to witness a more hopeful future.