February's catastrophic earthquake cost Syria $5.85bn in economic losses

Syrians were left more vulnerable to natural disasters after years of war. Civil societies were crucial to rescue efforts as the regime sat back.

Mari Fouz

A new report highlights the huge economic costs of the quake which ate up a third of Syria's national 2022 GDP. Also, 6,392 were killed and 170,000 were displaced.

February's catastrophic earthquake cost Syria $5.85bn in economic losses

Rabie Nasser

last update on 05 Sep 2023

The extent of the devastation in Syria’s northwest caused by the earthquake that hit the region this year is still emerging after seven months.

A detailed new study shows how the impact of the natural disaster was deeper in the country because it was already dealing with problems caused by civil war and ineffective governance.

But it also pointed to signs of hope for a better future in the aftermath of February’s catastrophe.

Syrians struggling with the immediate impact were doing so under a regime with little regard for its people. The lack of concern applied to considerations as basic as fundamental human rights, as well as more nuanced matters like social divisions, the political backdrop and the effect on the economy. Instead, the exploitative regime gave priority to maintaining its political hegemony.

And so, as the region reeled from thousands of fatalities and many more injuries – alongside widespread destruction of basic infrastructure and homes – the suffering of the people there was only just beginning. It worsened after the regime tried to take advantage of the chaos.

This is what a report from the Syrian Centre for Policy Research entitled The Impact of the Earthquake in Syria: The Missing Development Perspective in the Shadow of the Conflict concluded. It estimates the losses caused by the earthquake and assesses the lacklustre response to it in the country.

Diana Estafana Rubio

Calamity strikes

Syria’s northwest was already one of the regions hardest hit by war and the oppressive policies that marginalised it beforehand.

During the fighting, north-western Syria was hit by brutal battles that included heavy weapons, some of them prohibited internationally. Civilians and economic and social assets were deliberately targeted.

People were subject to collective punishments, including siege, forced displacement, arbitrary arrest, torture, forced disappearance and gender-based violence. Societies in the region have been torn apart by the politicisation of regional, ethnic, and religious identities.

They have been wracked by punitive economic measures used around the war including pillaging and the imposition of royalties. All this means Syria’s northwest was already a disaster area. It was unsafe, deprived and poor before the earthquake hit.

These struggles were ongoing under the three political regimes covering the area. The main national government was primarily responsible for most of the violations. Heavily dependent on Russian and Iranian support, it used violence to subjugate society.

However, the non-state forces in the region formed around the war also committed similar breaches. They relied on backing from Turkey and some Gulf states.

A detailed new study shows how the impact of the natural disaster was deeper in the country because it was already dealing with problems caused by civil war and bad government.

Quake inflicts massive toll

In these conditions, the earthquake killed 6,392 people inside Syria and a further 4,267 Syrian refugees in Turkey. Idlib was the worst-hit governorate, with 2,985 victims.

As a result of the earthquake, over 170,000 people were displaced as of the first week in March, many into camps that were already established, although new ones also had to be set up.

AFP — A Syrian girl is pictured in a tent at a makeshift shelter for people who were left homeless, near the rebel-held town of Jindayris on February 8, 2023, two days after a deadly earthquake hit Turkey and Syria.

The number of damaged buildings reached 12,796, of which 2,691 were completely destroyed. Idlib suffered the largest loss in terms of damaged buildings, at about 46.6%, followed by northern Aleppo at about 34%.

Health services, already run down, could not meet the needs of the injured in various regions and dozens of its facilities were damaged or destroyed. Education was also hit, with some schools destroyed and others turned into shelters.

The total economic losses inflicted by the earthquake was $5.85bn according to the study. That included a drop in gross domestic product (GDP) of around $3.62bn and capital losses of around $2.23bn. This amounts to about a third of Syria's national 2022 GDP.

However, with the impact concentrated on northwestern Syria, it sharply worsened the country's regional inequality. The national decline in GDP was estimated at 2.2% for 2023. But in Idlib, it will be 16% while in Afrin it will reach 24%.

Additionally, over 90,000 jobs were lost. In Idlib alone, unemployment rose 14 percentage points to hit 59%. Unemployment in Aleppo increased by about 1.9 percentage points, reaching 47%.

Monthly inflation rates also increased because of the earthquake in Idlib governorate by 4.2% in rural Aleppo by 2.2%.

As real incomes fell, abject poverty rates spiked higher, with the biggest move in Idlib, of 10.5 percentage points in Idlib. Poverty gaps also widened.

Apart from natural disasters, Syria has also been hit by drought and the Covid-19 pandemic and is extremely vulnerable to other global crises.

The total economic losses inflicted by the earthquake was $5.85bn. That included a drop in gross domestic product (GDP) of around $3.62bn and capital losses of around $2.23bn.

Pathetic rescue response

But the extent of the damage caused was worse because of the pathetic response from the country's political, social and economic systems. Syria suffered more because its mechanisms were defined by the conflict and the institutionalisation of violence and exclusion.

Fragmented political regimes add to the problem.

The Syria Centre for Policy Research report found that on-the-ground responses to the earthquake were ineffective. Priority was given to narrow political interests. The government's reaction was characterised by discrimination, politicisation and evasion of responsibility.

In territory outside its control, it neglected to respond directly. Neither did it request the enforcement of international support mechanisms in those areas.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Interim Government and the Salvation Government were unable to carry out their functions. There was a lack of clear strategy to confront the disaster. Coordination and mobilisation were weak. Burdens were shifted to civil society and international organisations. The disaster was used to deepen divisions between regions.

There was little to fill this vacuum from the international response, which was also lacking. The United Nations and donor countries responded more enthusiastically in Turkey than in Syria.

Even within Syria, it varied depending on which parts of the country the government-controlled. In some affected areas, there was no direct UN response. No equipment or rescue teams were sent, with international borders in the earthquake zone, which also struck southern Turkey, remaining closed. This meant the UN took over a week to get its first aid convoy into the devastation in Syria.

Reuters — A man stands amidst the debris as the search for survivors continues, in the aftermath of the earthquake, in Aleppo, Syria February 7, 2023.

The report found that on-the-ground responses to the earthquake were ineffective. Priority was given to narrow political interests. The government's reaction was characterised by discrimination, politicisation and evasion of responsibility.

Meanwhile, the discrepancy in the flow of aid between the regions of northwestern Syria and the areas controlled by the Syrian government became one of the worst manifestations of the country's bitter division and fragmentation.

And then there was no link between aid and development when international aid agencies got relief in. It missed an opportunity to improve governance structures, social solidarity and sustainability was missed.

The response from Syrian civil society was more effective, especially in the northwest.

In fact, it proved to be vital.

Organisations and initiatives mobilised volunteers and saved thousands of lives, despite a severe shortage of resources and equipment. They also coped with the arbitrary restrictions and bureaucracy imposed by governments, including security oversight defined by the prevailing politics of local areas.

It was Syria's civil organisations that showed how to deal with disaster and a means of overcoming social polarisation in the process. Such capable solidarity provides hope for the country's future.

AFP — Syrian rescue workers gather amidst collapsed buildings on February 6, 2022 in the town of Sarmada, in Syria's rebel-held northwestern Idlib province, as a search operation continues following a deadly earthquake

Signposts to a better future

The tragic events of February and afterwards show the need for a just and lasting political settlement in Syria, without which it will remain more vulnerable to disaster.

The discrepancy in the flow of aid between the regions of northwestern Syria and the areas controlled by the Syrian government became one of the worst manifestations of the country's bitter division and fragmentation.

What the earthquake made clear was that even after such a long period of bitter conflict, its people were able to organise into effective groups. These civil organisations and initiatives should play a central part in the country's recovery and any further political, social or economic interventions to help Syria's long-suffering people.

AFP — A Syrian man cries as he sits above the rubble of a collapsed building on February 7, 2023, in the town of Jandaris, in the rebel-held part of Aleppo province, following a deadly earthquake.

International pressure for proper development and an end to conflict is required. Division and misrule have taken enough of the country's potential. The effective part of the response to the earthquake shows how local-level action can get important, even life-saving results.

There is hope that this precedent can apply across Syria's divisions, moving it away from the fragmentation inflicted upon it. Social institutions should be rebuilt, with a focus on the competence of delivery shown in the most difficult circumstances by civil groups. Political considerations should be a factor in rescue responses.

Humanitarian support should be linked to development aims to become a driving force for beneficial change, which should be sustainable and equal, helping to bridge divisions. The organisation of help should come from "aid mediators" from recognised organisations, not the current political groups.

Then, with the country getting back up and running, the possibility of holding those accountable for the war may be raised. New national structures designed to prevent conflict, tyranny, and fragmentation should be set up.

To move on from the earthquake, Syria must also move on from the catastrophe that came before the disaster – by ending the era of war. The terrible events of February 2023 have shown it how to take the first steps.

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