Just how imminent is Israel's collapse?

The 51st US state

More interestingly, this anti-Israeli resistance force keeps reminding us that Israel was established through an international decision and with significant support from the West, especially the United States, with many going as far as considering Israel the 51st state.

They say that Israel's survival hinges on massive financial and military assistance provided by the US. While there are elements of truth here, these arguments overlook the West's underlying interests in creating Israel.

The West was driven by the urgency to address the Jewish question after the horrors of the Nazi Holocaust and to establish a new world order during the Cold War. Israel's significant role in Western policies became evident during its participation in the Suez War in 1956, where it demonstrated its willingness to align with Western goals, even if not directly related to their interests.

Moreover, as the US emerged as the leading Western power after the 1967 war, its policies towards Israel became more about its domestic politics.

Western intervention, or potential civil war

Despite these historical realities, such arguments seem inconsequential to theorists who firmly believe that Israel's imminent collapse is due to internal contradictions.

The crucial question that remains is whether the West would step in to prevent Israel's downfall or allow it to crumble, possibly leading to a civil war.

Additionally, the West would have to grapple with the burden of addressing the Jewish question anew, potentially losing all its investments in setting up the state of Israel since the Balfour Declaration which led to the establishment of the Jewish state.

For the sake of argument, even if we assume a weakened West may not aid Israel in preventing its collapse, what would happen afterwards?

Are Palestinian groups ready to seize on the opportunity? Will the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah – who had previously promised to drive in buses to Jerusalem to liberate it – fulfil his promises? At that time, Nasrallah bragged that his forces had the capability to destroy 10 armoured divisions in a blink.

Settlers' impact

There is no doubt about the depth of internal conflicts within Israel. Settlers' expanded influence – particularly from the extreme right and orthodox backgrounds, in the West Bank – is clear. The settlers have attained significant power, even occupying decision-making circles in the Israeli government.

Their influence extends to formulating economic, educational, and security policies that aim to destroy Palestinian society.

The political process that began with Menachem Begin's victory in 1977 and the rise of right-wing alliances with religious parties, and later, the return of Benjamin Netanyahu's new government, has highlighted the imbalance in Israeli society.

Personal considerations — such as Netanyahu's political survival, as well as the ideological convictions of the settlers' leaders — often outweigh other concerns, even potentially leading to resorting to violence to resolve internal disputes.

Read more: Israel's 'Netanyahuism' runs deeper than judicial reform

The curse of identity politics

This situation should serve as a warning to Israel's neighbours, to not prematurely celebrate without understanding the potentially harmful consequences of inter-Jewish fighting within the state.

The Palestinians nor the Arab region will benefit from an Israeli collapse that elevates figures like Ben Gvir. Instead, it could pave the way for the rise of another authoritarian regime on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean.

The curse of identity politics – currently prevalent among the Israeli religious right – suggests that an imminent collapse of Israel would not lead to celebration, but rather to new internal and external conflicts with uncertain outcomes.