Erdogan's change in tack welcomed in the West

While Turkey's ambivalent attitude towards the Ukraine conflict has caused immense frustration for other members of the Nato alliance, Erdogan continued to insist that Turkey would not take sides in the conflict, and would not support the sanctions regime other Nato countries had implemented against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February last year.

"The West is not leading a very balanced approach — you need a balanced approach toward a country such as Russia," Erdoğan said. "We are not at a point where we would impose sanctions on Russia as the West has done."

Nor did Erdogan endear himself to his other Nato allies by maintaining his opposition to Sweden joining the alliance on the grounds that Stockholm has consistently turned a blind eye to members of outlawed Kurdish "terrorists" living in exile in the country.

"We're not ready for Sweden right now," he told CNN, "because a Nato country should have a strong stance when it comes to fighting terrorism."

Sudden U-turn

Given his previous uncompromising stance, Erdogan's sudden U-turn at the recent Nato summit in Vilnius came as something of a shock for many Western observers, prompting speculation that Ankara is now seeking to distance itself from its former close ties with Moscow.

One of the more tangible developments to emerge from the Vilnius summit was Turkey's decision to end its long-standing objections to Sweden joining the alliance, an approach that had seriously soured Ankara's relations with the rest of the alliance.

Sweden's decision to join Nato, thereby ending decades of Sweden's official policy of remaining neutral in tensions between Russia and the West, is seen as a major achievement for Nato, as it means the entire Scandinavian bloc will now be included in the alliance, thereby consolidating its northern flank against any further acts of Russian aggression.

By lifting its objections to Swedish membership, Ankara will enable Nato to strengthen its defensive posture against Moscow — a move that is unlikely to be received warmly by the Kremlin. In return, the US has agreed to provide Turkey with F-16 fighter jets, as well as upgrade kits. 

This reverses Washington's previous restriction on Ankara buying sophisticated American military equipment which was imposed after Erdogan concluded a deal with Moscow to buy Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, which were specifically designed to shoot down Nato warplanes.

While both these outcomes  — Sweden joining Nato and Turkey acquiring US fighter jets — will have been greeted with dismay in Moscow, they are seen as representing a more subtle approach in Erdogan's dealings with the West, one that has already resulted in a significant improvement in relations between Washington and Ankara.

Following an hour-long meeting between Biden and Erdogan at the summit, the US president hailed the Turkish leader for his "courage, leadership and diplomacy" after Erdogan said he would tell the Turkish parliament to ratify Sweden's membership. Biden even posted a video on his official Twitter feed singing the Turkish strongman's praises.

Friction with Moscow

Nor is Erdogan's more cooperative stance with Nato the only development that has caused friction with Moscow.

Moscow was less than impressed with Erdogan's warm embrace of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his first visit to Turkey since the Russian invasion, especially when Zelensky returned home with five former Azov commanders who had fought in the battle over Mariupol and had been sent to Turkey as part of a prisoner swap on condition that they remained there.

Turkey's decision to allow them to return home to Ukraine prompted a furious response from Moscow, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claiming their release went against "the terms of existing agreements — these persons were supposed to stay on the territory of (Turkey)."

Erdogan's sudden change of heart in his attitude towards Moscow comes after he narrowly secured re-election in May's presidential elections, where popular discontent at his government's anti-West position was clearly evident.

The policy has also been blamed on the country's recent economic decline, with strained ties with the West being blamed for dampening the economy and limiting investment flows.

An eye on investment

By adopting a more positive attitude towards the West, Erdogan clearly hopes he can start to attract inward investment and revive Turkey's economic fortunes.

Nor is it just Erdogan's attitude towards the West that is undergoing a change of heart.

The Turkish leader's visit to Saudi Arabia this week, where he has been photographed smiling while being driven in an electric car by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in Jeddah represents a major change in relations between Ankara and Riyadh.

Erdogan's delicate diplomatic balancing act, where he is trying to maintain relations with Moscow while at the same time improving ties with the West, is not without its challenges.

Russia's decision, for example, to end its cooperation with the Black Sea grain deal that allowed ships to sail from wartime Ukraine can be seen as a direct response to Erdogan's policy of forging closer ties with the West.

The Turkish leader was seen as instrumental in persuading Russia to agree to the original UN-sponsored deal, which is deemed vital for maintaining global food supplies. Russia's decision to withdraw its cooperation has already prompted a major spike in grain costs, with wheat prices rising 3.4 percent, sparking fears for global food security.

At a time when the world is already facing instability as a result of the Ukraine conflict, a global food crisis can only make matters a great deal worse.