Is Sunak already doomed or can he turn things around?

In three years, Johnson went from triumphantly winning the 2019 general election to being forced to resign by his own ministers.

Elected with the promise to, 'get Brexit done,' after Britain's proposed departure from the EU had paralysed UK politics, Johnson retained popularity in his first years in office after finally agreeing a departure deal with Brussels.

Despite Britain's high death rate during the Covid pandemic, he also won some praise for the UK's successful vaccination rollout.

But the wheels came off as news emerged that Johnson's Downing Street had held repeated illegal parties during the various Covid lockdowns, some attended by Johnson himself.

This led to the so-called 'Partygate' scandal, which saw Johnson fined for breaking his own Covid rules and subjected him to a still-ongoing investigation over whether he knowingly misled parliament when explaining his actions.

On top of this, the post-pandemic economy stuttered, prompting a cost-of-living crisis that was amplified by high fuel costs and new trade barriers erected because of Johnson's Brexit deal.

Finally, Johnson's penchant for rewarding friends and allies with high office and government contacts, as well as his defence of several MPs after they broke parliamentary rules added to a general air of sleaze and a loss of public trust not only in Johnson but in the wider Conservative party.

No clean break

Sunak then, inherited a government already mistrusted by the public. While he tried to present himself as a clean break from both Johnson and Truss, he had actually played a leading role in the former's administration.

As the UK's finance minister, Sunak made major contributions to Covid policies and the subsequent economic struggles. He was also caught up in the Partygate scandal, being fined for attending illegal gatherings.

Yet he enjoyed no loyalty from Johnson's supporters, having led the revolt against him in 2022. Sunak was therefore tainted by association with Johnson in public eyes but also faced hostility from a pro-Johnson contingent of his own MPs who believed he had stabbed their former leader in the back.

Sunak tried to reset the clock with an agenda aimed at clawing back some credibility for the Conservatives.

In a January 2023 speech he made five promises: to halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce national debt, cut National Health Service (NHS) waiting lists, and reduce illegal immigration.

There followed a series of high-profile policy moves aimed at achieving these goals and improving public perception of the Conservatives.

One such move was a new deal with the EU over Northern Ireland to ease the flow of trade. Another was the announcement of harsh measures to punish migrants crossing the English Channel illegally on small boats.

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In addition, Sunak sought to foster a more prime ministerial image to move beyond the technocrat he had been portrayed as while Chancellor. He tried to show he had the common touch by attending a football match at his childhood club, Southampton, ironically on the day they were relegated from the Premier League.

He emphasised his statesmanlike qualities with a speech on the threat of China before the G7 summit last month. But these failed to make a lasting imprint on the popular consciousness, and he has so far struggled to decisively deliver on any of his five promises.

Despite a slight rally in March, Sunak's personal approval ratings have remained behind Labour leader Keir Starmer throughout his premiership, with his net satisfaction rate falling to -21 in June.

Problems mount

Sunak's continued unpopularity is unsurprising given the problems he faces. Little has improved in Britain's economy. Inflation dropped in May, to 8.7%, but wages have failed to keep pace.

With interest rates rising as the Bank of England struggles to tackle inflation, voters have higher mortgages, higher shopping bills, and less money to pay for either.

While the government was delighted that Britain narrowly avoided a recession in 2023 with a growth rate of 0.1%, for ordinary people struggling to get by this is little comfort.

Meanwhile, the cost-of-living crisis has prompted unprecedented levels of strike action as unions push for higher wages. By the end of 2022, Britain had lost the most number of working days due to strike action since 1989. 2023 has barely improved and could end up surpassing the 2.47m days lost in 2022.

Sunak has not helped matters by appearing out of touch.

The prime minister told reporters on the way to the G7 that, "Economic optimism is increasing, consumer confidence is increasing," despite evidence to the contrary.

In contrast, a leading Bank of England economist noted elsewhere that the UK population would have to accept that they were poorer than in the past.

This adds to a general sense that Sunak's personal wealth makes him unable to grasp the crisis' impact. With a personal fortune of over 7 million, and a much larger one belonging to his wife, Sunak is the wealthiest-ever occupant of 10 Downing Street.

As chancellor, his penchant for £180 coffee mugs pointed to his privilege. As prime minister, he has been criticised for repeatedly using helicopter rides to travel short distances rather than public transport, despite the costs to the environment and taxpayers.

On top of these problems comes the public Covid inquiry. Sunak's government has sought judicial review to block the inquiry from getting full access to ministers' WhatsApp messages and other notes, which Sunak's team insist are 'irrelevant' to the investigation. They also argue it sets a dangerous precedent of a lack of privacy for future ministers.

However, commentators speculate that the real reason is a desire for Sunak to limit the scrutiny of his actions as chancellor at the time.

The inquiry was expected to mostly focus on then-prime minister Johnson and some of the decisions he made during the pandemic, which may have worsened Covid-19's spread. However, insiders suggest the inquiry chair, Lady Hallet, is as much focused on Sunak's actions as chancellor.

While Sunak won praise for the 'furlough' scheme early in the crisis, which protected many peoples' jobs, his subsequent actions such as the 'Eat out to help out' scheme, which subsidised the hospitality industry, and his opposition to a 'circuit breaker lockdown' in Autumn 2021, may have worsened the pandemic.

Sunak once portrayed himself as a hero of the pandemic, but the inquiry may conclude the opposite, portraying him as even more responsible than Johnson for the UK's Covid failings. Such an outcome would likely destroy his reputation further and torpedo any vague chances of re-election.

Faint hopes?

While most analysts give Sunak little chance of triumphing over Labour at the next election, there remain a few faint hopes.

Firstly, the nature of Britain's electoral system has historically given the Conservatives an advantage. While the opinion polls that give Labour a sizeable lead are a national average, the 'first past the post' voting system means this may not translate automatically into a sizeable Labour win.

Historically, Labour's vote has been concentrated in urban areas, meaning it wins huge majorities in urban constituencies, but the Conservatives win more seats, by a smaller margin, in the more numerous rural seats.

Recent trends have bucked this a little, but there remains the prospect that Sunak may not need to make up all the ground on Labour in opinion polls to still prevent them from winning.

Secondly, there is Starmer, his rival for prime minister. While Sunak does not seem to be making many inroads with the British public, nor is his opponent. According to YouGov, only 22% of Britons and 37% of Labour voters believe Starmer is a 'good' or 'great' leader.

Sunak is lucky that he is not facing an opponent with the charm and appeal of Tony Blair. The electorate seems to be shifting to Labour due to opposition to the Conservatives rather than an attraction to Labour.

While Starmer is keeping his powder dry and will not reveal key policies for government until closer to the election, this theoretically still gives Sunak time to find alternative messages that will win voters back.

Given Starmer's lack of popularity, there is also the possibility that a well-fought election campaign might claw some support back for the Conservatives.

Finally, there is the fractious state of the Conservative Party. While this is not good for the Conservatives in general, it is good for Sunak.

After years of bloodletting when first Johnson and then Truss were unseated, there is little appetite for further disruption on the Conservative benches. This means that Sunak is likely to remain in place until after the election, without having to worry about a possible coup.

Indeed, even were Sunak to lose the election, he may stand a chance of staying on as leader provided he performs well. He could plausibly push a narrative that he had righted the party after Truss and deserves another shot.  

However, though we cannot forecast the future, all three hopes currently seem to be straws being clutched in vain. The electoral system may help deprive Labour of a landslide or even a majority, forcing them into a coalition with others, but it will take a highly unlikely turnaround to leave the Conservatives as the largest party.

Starmer may lack charm, but he has thus far run a very professional set-up and looks unlikely to falter at the final hurdle.

And while Sunak may be safe for now, the Conservative Party is famed for its ruthlessness and the prime minister has already shown too little appeal to suggest he will likely survive an election defeat – especially with high profile alternatives like Penny Mordant waiting in the wings.

In all likelihood Rishi Sunak is already on borrowed time, with less than a year and a half left in office. He will no doubt keep trying to find some formula that might win back support, but at present it looks in vain.