Unresolved issues in Yemen hinder political settlement

The Houthis' vision for governance after they expanded their control over another desert province, capturing the largest part of what was known as Northern Yemen, including Sana'a, before the declaration of unity in 1990, has become more evident, particularly after they tightened their uncontested grip on power following the assassination of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh in December 2017.

Their vision revolves around the notion of guardianship and the concept of divine choice of an autocratic ruler who must be unquestioningly obeyed, in this case, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the group's chief. 

Of course, this style of governance cannot tolerate diversity or any governance involving principles such as democracy and federalism, which appreciate and accept these concepts.

Read more: Building a viable state fit for Yemeni people to return

As a result, there is no possibility of any compromise between the Houthis and the other political factions, including the southern states seeking secession. Federalism could have been a short-term solution.  

Not only is the final political settlement in Yemen undermined by the lack of trust between the various factions but also by the huge divergence between the competing and irreconcilable political visions laid out by the various parties, in addition to a severe lack of political will for any such settlement.

None of the parties that could concede with their political project with the aim of sharing power with others are inclined to meet their adversaries halfway, meaning that compromises here seem extremely unlikely and hard to attain.

For some southern factions, accepting such a compromise would mean losing supporters. As for the Houthis, any compromise would represent a loss of the group's core ideology and raison d'être. 

End of war unlikely anytime soon

Despite all the objective conditions for ceasing the war in Yemen at the regional level being present and the two major actors deciding to turn the page on the conflict there, the Yemen war— certainly at the local level—doesn't appear likely to be ending soon. 

In addition to the long path ahead on the road to a political settlement, there is another more dangerous problem, namely the spheres of influence for each armed group. 

The armed clashes in Syria and Libya ended when each armed group became confined to its own sphere of influence — even without reaching a political settlement that settles the entire dispute. This issue seems to remain unresolved in Yemen, however. 

While it's clear that the Houthis possess an armed force that's bigger and more organised than the other Yemeni factions, their lack of air power grants their rivals an edge, making it tempting for an ideologically-motivated group like the Houthis to extend their influence into the rest of the region.

Moreover, the group's sectarian nature gives it the driving force of zealotry that impels all such theocratic groups, who deem it necessary to impose their own theocratic theory of governance on everybody, regardless of any borders or religious, social or political differences. 

Yet, there are various seeds of tensions in the South. While the most dangerous faction there — the Southern Transitional Council — speaks of the South as a unified political bloc, these speeches have nothing to do with the realities on the ground.

Southern Yemen is divided among armed groups and multiple regional powers fuelling provincial divisions. Thus, the spheres of influence don't appear to be finally decided and stable. 

The country is in an uneasy peace, awaiting the next round of fighting, which will redraw the current spheres of influence in proportion to the power of each southern Yemen faction. 

In conclusion, it seems there are consecutive and accelerating steps towards a settlement that produces a ceasefire at the regional level. Locally, however, sporadic fighting continues, and the situation remains ambiguous, awaiting additional rounds of infighting. 

-Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen is a researcher at the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies. She has published articles and analytical in several Arab and foreign media outlets.