Air strikes alone won't end Syria's drug trade

The second air strike hit an empty desalination station in the west of Dara'a, which was previously used to facilitate drug trafficking to Jordan. The message here is that they will not hesitate to target all drug facilities, including those hidden in government buildings.

The high profile of Marai a-Ramthan, who is involved in drug smuggling to Jordan in coordination with the regime, makes this message clearer: the regime will not be able to protect drug traffickers.

Reports have identified Jordan as the country responsible for the air strikes. Jordan is known as both a destination and a main transit route to Gulf countries for Captagon, a cheap amphetamine produced in and smuggled through Syria.

However, Jordan's foreign minister declined to confirm his country had carried out the strike, stating that they announce any measures they take when they do so.

However, it is possible that the air strikes were due to tensions with the Syrian regime. Notably, the air strikes occurred only days after Jordan's foreign minister threatened to take military action inside Syria if Damascus fails to take effective measures to rein in smuggling.

If this turns out to be the case, then the strikes could be used to send a loud, yet somewhat unofficial, message to Damascus to do more if it does not want Amman to become more directly involved. In other words, the kingdom is losing patience with the Syrian regime and puts no weight on al-Assad's promises.

A joint operation?

There is also a small possibility that the recent air strikes were part of increased cooperation between Syria and Jordan, as part of ongoing regional efforts to bring Syria back to the Arab fold.

Earlier this month, Syria pledged to tackle drug trafficking across its borders with Jordan and Iraq following a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Amman. 

Damascus also agreed to collaborate with Jordan and Iraq to form joint political and security teams to identify sources of drug production, smuggling operations, and the entities that organise and manage them across the borders.

However, even if the air strikes were a result of such collaboration, the fact that a foreign state carried out the attack speaks volumes about the commitment of the Syrian regime to fighting drugs.

Both targets were located in areas controlled by the Syrian regime, which would have made it easier to use ground operations to eliminate the threats without casualties. It seems that Damascus was not willing to do so, which might explain why the air strikes were carried out by another state.

Limited success

Jordan has successfully made trafficking operations to its territories riskier and more difficult by increasing border security. However, the success has been limited as smuggling groups remain active.

Air strikes against drug-related targets inside Syria are also unlikely to have a significant impact. Sources on the ground have reported that drug dealers have gone into hiding after the attacks, with many moving their trafficking operations to safer locations.

Reconciliation efforts with Arab states may prompt the regime to make some low-level arrests and drug interceptions, but its involvement in the narcotics trade is expected to continue.

Captagon — a lucrative part of Syria's war economy — is estimated to be worth $5.7 billion a year. Even if some countries are willing to compensate Damascus for the loss of the drug trade, sanctions on the regime make such an agreement difficult to implement.

Focusing on hitting drug-related targets inside Syria is likely to create another endless game of whack-a-mole that the regime and its allies will quickly cope with to ensure that drugs continue to flow.