Elections demonstrate vibrancy of democracy in Turkey

Erdogan's assault on the country's democratic institutions have been especially evident since the failed 2016 coup, when a military-inspired attempt to seize control of the country by force ended in failure.

Erdogan understandably regarded the coup attempt as a direct attack on his presidency, especially as his private jet reportedly came close to being shot down by two Turkish air force F-16s while flying to Istanbul airport.

The Turkish president's response since the coup has been to launch a nationwide clampdown not just against his opponents, but against any group that is perceived to oppose his autocratic Islamist regime.

Having acquired sweeping presidential powers in the wake of the 2017 constitutional referendum, Erdogan and his supporters have undertaken a wide-ranging crackdown against regime opponents.

This has led to the closure of most anti-government media outlets, and the dismissal of tens of thousands of police, military personnel, civil servants and judges accused of being sympathetic to the coup attempts.

In addition more than 95,000 citizens have been jailed.

In such circumstances serious concerns were raised that it would be almost impossible for opposition candidates to muster a serious challenge to Erdogan's two decades in power.

Fully committed to democracy

Yet, while recent constitutional changes have undoubtedly strengthened the Turkish leader's ability to remain in power, the strong challenge mounted by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main contender for the presidency who is backed by a six party alliance, shows that, despite Erdogan's efforts, the Turkish people remain fully committed to Turkey's democratic process.

In what has been the most serious challenge that Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have faced since first taking power in 2003 , Kilicdaroglu, a 74-year-old former accountant and civil servant who heads the Republican People's party (CHP), came close to ousting Erdogan from office.

While the opinion polls predicted that Kilicdaroglu was heading for a narrow victory in Sunday's poll, the contest ended with neither candidate securing the 50 percent threshold necessary to claim outright victory.

With more than 99 percent of the votes counted, Turkey's Supreme Election Council declared that Erdogan was ahead with 49.54 percent of the vote, while Kilicdaroglu had won 44.88 percent. With neither candidate achieving the 50 percent threshold, a rerun of the election is now scheduled for May 28.

Read more: Turkey heads for run-off election with Ogan the likely kingmaker

Premature celebrations and calls for patience

While AKP supporters are already claiming victory, taking part in street celebrations outside the party's headquarters in Ankara after the result was announced, the opposition was less convinced about the outcome, with activists accusing Erdogan's ruling party of interfering with the counting and the reporting of results.

Kilicdaroglu, by contrast, has urged his supporters to be patient, and insists he will prevail in the runoff.

There is certainly a recent precedent in Turkish politics whereby an opposition candidate seeking to challenge the AKP has prevailed in a run-off.

Following the success of Ekrem Imamoglu, the opposition candidate, in Istanbul's mayoral elections in 2019, the AKP tried to have the election annulled, citing voting irregularities. Instead there was a rerun of the election that resulted in Imamoglu increasing his share of the vote and securing victory.

Erdogan and his supporters therefore need to take care that history does not repeat itself in the presidential contest, especially as Kilicdaroglu, despite being five years older than Erdogan, appears to have attracted strong support from young Turkish voters.

With the Turkish economy facing strong headwinds, with inflation estimated to be running at 45 percent, discontent with Erdogan's government has been growing, especially as the Turkish leader has been accused of causing the economic difficulties through his inept handling of the coronavirus pandemic and its aftermath.

He has also faced strong criticism over his handling of last February's devastating earthquake that claimed more than 50,000 lives and displaced three million citizens.

Kilicdaroglu's pledge, therefore, to dismantle Erdogan's oppressive authoritarian system is one of the reasons he has managed to attract such strong support throughout the country.

If he does become president, Kilicdaroglu has pledged to scrap Erdogan's presidential system by re-establishing the powers of parliament and the office of prime minister, as well as guaranteeing the independence of the judiciary and the press.

"The youth want democracy, they don't want the police to come to their doors early in the morning just because they tweeted," Kilicdaroglu commented in a recent BBC interview.

"I am telling young people they can criticise me freely. I will make sure they have this right."

Kilicdaroglu's commitment to reaffirm his country's Nato credentials, especially his pledge to repair Ankara's relations with the US, has also attracted interest from Western leaders, as has his suggestion that he will revive Turkey's bid to join the European Union.

Even so, Kilicdaroglu and his supporters will be aware that Erdogan is a formidable opponent, one who has steered the AKP to multiple election victories during the past twenty years.

Moreover, fears remain that, if Erdogan does manage to secure victory in the run-off, he will continue with his efforts to increase his presidential powers at the expense of the country's democratic institutions.

To do so would be a grave error because, as the Turkish people have demonstrated in their millions, their desire to be part of a democratic state remains undiminished, irrespective of which candidate emerges victorious.