The renewed round of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is part of an ongoing cycle of ‘wars between wars’, as previous confrontations between the sides roll on into new violence.
This pattern has lasted in Gaza since Israel's unilateral withdrawal from the Strip in 2005. It made the move to alleviate the political, security, and economic burdens of controlling two million Palestinians in a small and resource-limited area.
Israel also wanted to separate Gaza and the West Bank to undermine the chances of an independent Palestinian state in the territories it has occupied since 1967.
A boy sits amid Israeli strike damage in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip May 11, 2023.
But the Gaza withdrawal merely involved the redeployments of Israeli forces to the border of the Strip. Subsequently, Israel blockaded Gaza and intermittently launched brutal and destructive strikes against it to weaken and subdue the region.
A terrible and unequal death toll
Israel has consistently used force to subdue the Palestinians and maintain its occupation. Around 7,500 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli gunfire between 2006, when Mahmoud Abbas became their leader, and 2022, an annual average of 470 deaths in the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem.
In contrast, 371 Israelis were killed during the same period, averaging about 23 deaths per year. This staggering ratio of human losses between the two sides demonstrates the significant disparity in casualties, with one Israeli life lost for every 21 Palestinians.
Around 7,500 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli gunfire between 2006 and 2022. In contrast, 371 Israelis were killed during the same period, averaging about 23 deaths per year. This averages to one Israeli life lost for every 21 Palestinians.
During the tenure of the Bennett-Lapid government last year, 230 Palestinians lost their lives, while the current Israeli government under Netanyahu, Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir has been responsible for the deaths of 140 Palestinians in less than five months.
A Palestinian girl looks at the rubble of a building, following an Israeli air strike, in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on May 11, 2023.
In response to this aggression, the Palestinian leadership appears to have limited options but to seek international assistance, including from the UN Security Council.
The Palestine Liberation Organization, the Palestine Authority, and Fatah aim to exert pressure on Israel to cease its hostilities and to request international protection for Palestinian territories.
But they are aware that achieving these objectives has proven to be exceedingly difficult over the past 75 years.
Palestinian factions, particularly those possessing military and missile capabilities in Gaza, such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, respond to Israeli aggression by launching rockets and issuing fiery statements that threaten harm to Israel.
They seek to enforce rules of engagement on Israel and claim to have established a form of mutual deterrence. They emphasise the importance of unity between the fronts on the West Bank and Gaza to prevent Israel from targeting one individually.
Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these approaches remains unproven, and they have not yielded significant changes in the dynamics of the conflict compared with past wars.
Painful discrepancy
The core problem faced by the Palestinian people is the absence of a comprehensive and clear political vision and a credible and responsible political leadership.
The core problem faced by the Palestinian people is the absence of a comprehensive and clear political vision and a credible and responsible political leadership.
The national movement, which is 58 years old, also lacks a viable, appropriate, sustainable, well-examined, and accountable strategy that can be effectively utilised for a legitimate cause that people remain willing to support.
Palestinians continue to persevere in their complex, difficult, and costly struggle. Their unwavering commitment, willingness to make sacrifices, and resilient spirit show their determination.
However, it is precisely because of these factors that they have not been able to effectively capitalise on their efforts, leading to a discrepancy between their sacrifices and achievements.
Palestinian factions have placed a great deal of emphasis on armed struggle. This often means human life is sacrificed without due regard for its sanctity while the political component is sheltered from scrutiny by the unity demanded by conflict.
It has also allowed the contemporary political factions to establish themselves as the representatives of the Palestinians after the 1948 Nakba.
An Iron Dome launcher fires an interceptor missile as rockets are fired from Gaza, in Sderot, Israel, May 10, 2023.
The focus on armed conflict has overshadowed other essential aspects of the struggle. It means the capacity of the people to endure suffering has not been fully considered, leading to severe suffering. It leaves conflict as the main means of establishing unity, even with the sides mismatched.
Remarkable resilience
Despite all the challenges and missed opportunities they have faced, the remarkable resilience and determination of the Palestinian people persists.
But it is crucial to address the underlying problems, not least the need for a comprehensive political vision and strategies alongside accountable leadership.
With that, the Palestinians can align their sacrifices with tangible achievements in their pursuit of self-determination and justice.
The Palestinian factions currently dominate the political landscape, benefiting from the Palestinian people's eagerness to respond to Israeli aggression and assert their dignity. This can sometimes overshadow the valuable lessons learned from the long and arduous Palestinian experience.
Each new operation or missile launch can appear as if the Palestinian action or armed struggle has just begun, rather than being recognised as the latest bout in a fight lasting six decades.
The most intense phase of the conflict came during the second intifada between 2000 and 2004. It claimed the lives of around 5,000 Palestinians and 1,060 Israelis. That was the highest number of human losses suffered by Israel since its establishment, excluding the Arab-Israeli wars.
Human losses
It took the ratio of human losses between Israelis and Palestinians down significantly to 1:4. Israel launched two devastating wars against the Palestinians between 2002 and 2003, regaining control of the West Bank, destroying infrastructure, and dividing it through settlements, checkpoints, and barriers.
People walk amidst debris past the building housing the flat (top floor) of an Islamic Jihad military leader, which was destroyed by an Israeli air strike in Khan Yunis, early on May 11, 2023.
Later, in 2005, Israel withdrew from Gaza, imposing a siege on it in place of running day-to-day control over it. In effect, this turned it into a large prison and a testing ground for Israeli missiles. It also made Gaza into a significant problem for the Palestinians.
The subsequent Israeli wars against Gaza have come at a high cost, particularly when the factions responded with missile attacks. The Palestinian human losses in these conflicts have been significant.
In the first war, in late 2008, 1,436 Palestinians were killed compared to 13 Israelis. In the second war, in late 2012, 155 Palestinians were killed compared to 3 Israelis.
The third war in the summer of 2014 resulted in the death of 2,174 Palestinians compared to 70 Israelis. In the fourth war in the summer of 2021, 243 Palestinians were killed compared to 12 Israelis, and in the fifth war in the summer of 2022, 44 Palestinians were killed with no Israeli casualties.
These figures illustrate the stark difference in casualties, heavily favouring Israel. The casualty ratio ranged from approximately 1:100 to 1:44 in these conflicts.
During the Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip from 1967 until its withdrawal in 2005, a total of 230 Israelis were killed, averaging six deaths per year. More than half of these deaths occurred during the second intifada, which encompassed the West Bank and the territories within the 1948 borders.
Rockets are fired from Gaza into Israel, in Gaza?May 10, 2023.
The Palestinians' armed struggle has proven to be unsustainable. It has incurred a high cost. The heroism and sacrifice of the Palestinians has not been effectively utilised.
The Palestinians' armed struggle has proven to be unsustainable. It has incurred a high cost. The heroism and sacrifice of the Palestinians has not been effectively utilised.
Fedayeen fighters
Fedayeen, or 'commando' operations carried out against Israel by independent fighters unaffiliated with those running the wider struggle have at times been more effective than missile strikes.
The Wadi al-Haramiyah operation between Nablus and Ramallah in March 2002, carried out by Tha'ir Hamad, killed 11 Israelis using a primitive rifle. Meanwhile, the Khairy Alqam operation in the Nabi Yacoub settlement near Jerusalem resulted in the deaths of 7 Israelis in 2023.
Most importantly, these operations have hindered Israel from fully unleashing its military might to suppress the Palestinians.
Israel has a significant advantage, not only in military capabilities but also in its ability to neutralise and counteract Palestinian action.
Israel has been adept at transforming Palestinian resistance into a burden for the Palestinians themselves, while preventing them from leveraging these struggles for significant political achievements within the Arab and international contexts.
Mismatched military capabilities
But the Palestinians have never given up. And there has been a shift in the Palestinian national action, with a move towards internal governance under the Palestinian Authority, as well as an emphasis on missile warfare launched from Gaza to compensate for limitations in armed action within the occupied territories.
As factional influence has waned, the independent fedayeen have emerged, reflecting a new form of resistance.
The Palestinians would benefit from a more critical and accountable approach towards their armed struggle. They need to overhaul its strategy, paying more heed to the endurance of the people, the sustainability of the struggle, and selecting the most viable, appropriate, and effective forms of resistance based on their capabilities and the prevailing circumstances.
It is important to exploit Israeli contradictions and political divisions, rather than inadvertently unify them around far-right ideologies.
The Palestinians must recognise and understand the political landscape both at the international and local levels. In the face of an extremist and fascist Israeli government, the factions are limited in their ability to respond if Israel attempts to uproot Palestinians from various regions such as Jerusalem, Galilee, or Hebron.
Smoke rises over the skyline following an Israeli airstrike, in Gaza, Wednesday, May 10, 2023.
The question arises: do the Palestinians have any chance of resisting any potential new transfer plan, considering the displacement experiences of millions of Syrians and Ukrainians in recent years, which occurred uninterrupted and in full view of the world?
Armed struggle abroad was once effective
It is also important to recognise that the experience of Palestinian armed struggle abroad served its purpose until the mid-1970s. It mobilised the Palestinian people and led to Arab and international recognition of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), the Palestinian people, and their rights.
But after that period, the effectiveness diminished, as demonstrated by the lack of significant new achievements until the outbreak of the first intifada in 1987.
The Palestinians found themselves off their land, and the Arab-Israeli struggle had faded. And they lacked the capability to engage in military confrontation on their own against Israel.
A time for caution
In conclusion, Palestinians must exercise caution in these circumstances, as their adversary may exploit any miscalculated offensive to launch a massive response that serves its strategy of dispersing the Palestinians and weakening their resilience.
Additionally, the resistance must regain its popularity, adapting to the Palestinians' capabilities and circumstances. It is important to remember that war is Israel's domain, while resistance belongs to the Palestinians.
But political strategy is often lacking, or deficient, amid the extensive challenges that face the Palestinians.
The independent fedayeen commando actions are a natural response to the attacks of the Israeli army and settlers. They arise from a combination of spontaneity, the lack in overall political strategy and the frustration of the factions.
They reflect the belief in justice and righteousness among young individuals who possess the spirit of courage and sacrifice that defines the Palestinians, as a new generation seeks to defend their people.
