Why Iraq is stalling over opening its trade border to Syria

The head of the Syrian Association of International Freight Forwarders downplayed the situation on 1 February, blaming the delay on the setting up of a special mechanism with Baghdad to help issue multiple-entry visas to Syrian truck drivers.

Objections from non-state actors

However, other officials painted a different — and likely more accurate — picture. According to those officials, the agreement has not been implemented because of objections by "influential Iraqi non-state actors."

Those entities reportedly do not want the cost of Syrian goods to be decreased, which is what would happen if the agreement is implemented. Doing so would increase the compactivity of Syrian products against other commodities, such as Iraqi and Iranian.

Likewise, lowering the cost of cargo shipments to Iraq is expected to increase Syria's exports by 100%. Currently, the cost of shipping a loaded truck from Syria to Iraq costs $6,000-7,000. In comparison, a similar cargo entering from Turkey costs around $2,200.

The difference in costs goes to the groups responsible for moving the goods to the Iraqi trucks at the Al-Qa'im border crossing before transporting it to its final destination inside the country. Obviously, these companies have much to lose if restrictions were to loosen.

But these profiteers are not the only ones opposing lifting the ban.

Fears over drug smuggling

There are fears that easing the restrictions would increase the scale of drugs smuggled from Syria. An Iraqi official told this author that those concerns were echoed by Iraqi, US and Gulf actors.

Read more: Can US-UK sanctions dismantle Syria's drug industry?

These actors are pushing to keep the current arrangement, as any changes would likely increase the flow of drugs to and through Iraq.

The source also highlighted that the some of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Units are also against lifting the ban — albeit for completely different reasons.

Those militias are reportedly using their control over the illegal crossings with Syria to facilitate drug operations. Hence, their concern is that lifting the ban may challenge their monopoly over this illicit trade, by allowing other actors to smuggle drugs without paying their dues. 

Normalisation with al-Assad

However, the increased Arab normalisation with the Syrian regime after the earthquake that hit Syria and Turkey might motivate influential actors who have been resisting the new agreement to modify their position. The change of heart, if it happens, would likely by driven by the potential economic benefits that could come from bringing Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad back into the Arab fold.

In other words, the implementation of the new agreement will not be the result of reining in the non-state actors benefiting from the current arrangement.

On the contrary, it would likely allow them to find new ways to expand their gains by enabling Syria's drug industry to grow exponentially and pose an increasing health and security risk to Iraq, the region, and beyond.