Damascus instability proof that war is far from over

Notably, pro-government media did not report on every incident, choosing instead to downplay the uptick in violence. Even when some of these attacks were publicised, regime-supported news outlets generally portrayed the targets as civilians.

Independent news sources, on the other hand, reported that almost all the casualties were pro-government fighters or collaborators. A tally of these sources finds that 83 of the 88 killed in such incidents since 2021 were members of regime armed forces or Iranian-backed foreign militias — including Lebanese Hezbollah and the Afghan Fatemiyoun.

Despite the significance of these attacks, the perpetrators have generally remained silent. ISIS is one of the few groups that have claimed credit for some of the assaults that occurred.

As for the other incidents, the means by which they were carried out offers clues to the responsible parties.

For instance, multiple media organisations reported that 18 of the casualties were found days after they disappeared, suggesting they were kidnapped first.

Widespread abductions

Abduction for ransom has become a widespread phenomenon in Syria, which means that criminal groups might be responsible for some incidents. If so, the killings could have happened either because the operations were not successful or because the attackers wanted to cover their tracks.

Ten of the unclaimed attacks in 2022 and three of this year's incidents involved the use of IEDs, while the rest were carried out with firearms. Given that the targets were all members of or supported by the al-Assad regime, it is likely that former rebels — people who have the motives, skills, and resources to carry out attacks — were responsible for some of these incidents.

In addition to failing to honour commitments pledged during surrender negotiations in 2018, including the release of detainees, the regime has boosted its efforts to forcibly enlist into military service young men from the Damascus countryside. More importantly, deteriorating living conditions and rising rates of hunger may have motivated renewed resistance after nearly two years of relative calm.

It is also entirely possible that some of these attacks, especially the ones that involved shooting or direct clashes, were "inside jobs."

The significant decrease in fighting in Syria has escalated competition between pro-regime groups over influence and resources. While some of these incidents have been settled through direct confrontations between the parties involved, others might have decided to use more discreet means to settle scores.

The identity of the perpetrators, however, is not the most important element of these attacks.

Formidable challenge

The biggest unknown is whether the regime has the capacity to prevent them from striking again. While the answer remains unclear, the random pattern of these incidents, their spread across a relatively large area, and the diversity of potential suspects make such a task a formidable challenge.

Even if the regime can put an end to this wave of killing, recent developments have shown that the security of areas officially deemed safe is in fact precarious and fragile.

Western governments should not be fooled by al-Assad's claim that the Syrian capital is safe for the country's refugees, or anyone else. Syria remains in a state of war, and the only path to lasting peace is a comprehensive and fair political solution.