Syria never separated itself from the Arab world, but Syrian President Bashar al-Assads' regime was never close to it. What may have been perceived as harmony between the Arabs and al-Assads' regime was, in reality, the extortion of the Arabs at the hands of both father (Hafez) and son (Bashar).
During the Lebanese war, for example, Hafez al-Assad used hostages, among other tactics, to force the world to negotiate with him. During the Lebanese war, a group affiliated with the Syrian regime, or coordinating with it, kidnapped a group of foreign diplomats and journalists working in Lebanon. The world appealed to Hafez al-Assad to secure their release.
But the regime’s tactics were not limited to hostage-taking. There were also many "terrorists" that Hafez al-Assad used as bargaining chips, such as the cases of Carlos and Abdullah Ocalan.
Bashar Al-Assad's policy was not much different.
Syrians await the release of relatives held in regime prisons, on May 3, 2022 in the centre of Damascus.
When his regime carried out several assassinations and car bombs in Lebanon and sent terrorists to Iraq, many countries severed their diplomatic relations with Damascus. Later, ties were restored so that al-Assad would stop the attacks.
The Syrian regime carried out several assassinations and car bombs in Lebanon and sent terrorists to Iraq, many countries severed their diplomatic relations with Damascus. Later, ties were restored so that al-Assad would stop the attacks. He never stopped them, though.
Bashar al-Assad was never just an ally of Iran that could shift his loyalty.
Ever since his first days in office, he's been involved in the Iranian project to control the Levant and form a geopolitical sphere of influence that spreads from Iran to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Palestine.
Shared suspicions
This project is aimed at destroying Arab national security and shifting the power balance in the region.
Iran could never have achieved its project had not it been for the accomplice it had, who shared Damascus' suspicions towards the Arab region — especially over the KSA, which was the focal point of the Arab security network in the eastern Mediterranean region that extended from Beirut to the coasts of the Arabian sea.
It was more like a direct attack on Saudi Arabia's project to rearrange the balance in the region, especially after the invasion of Iraq which led to Iran's expanded influence.
Here, Bashar al-Assad's interest in staying in power converged with Iran's, as he also represented the rule of a minority group (the Allawites).
The Sunni Arabs in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon no longer had support to assume their historical role as a leading actor in the region's politics and future.
Therefore, the assassination of Hariri was Iran's opportunity to reshuffle the cards in the region and carry out the largest displacement operation of the Sunnis of Iraq, which took place after the bombing of the Askari shrine in Samarra in February 2006.
The Sunni Arabs in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon no longer had support to assume their historical role as a leading actor in the region's politics and future. Therefore, the assassination of Hariri was Iran's opportunity to reshuffle the cards in the region.
Nuri Al-Maliki was suspected of being involved in this operation, which was used to justify the displacement process led by Iraqi sectarian militias affiliated with Iran.
Those militias came to Syria in 2011 and continued the displacement process by displacing over 10 million Sunni Arabs from Syria as part of Iran's project to demographically re-engineer the Levant.
Bashar al-Assad was more than just an ally, he was an accomplice in this expulsion, looking after his own interests.
Implicated in Hariri murder
Al-Assad's involvement in the assassination of Hariri is widely known. Former French Defence Minister Michèle Alliot-Marie spoke about this on an Al-Arabiya news programme.
She pointed out the enormous pressure placed on the international investigation committee to remove Bashar's name from the list of those accused of the assassination.
Damascus, Syria -May, 2022: Portrait image of Bashar al-Assad, President of Syria.
I mention this because it seems that al-Assad has returned to his policy of extortion and bargaining, which he has become an expert in. This time, he found new things to use as bargaining chips, like Captagon and weapons shipments and the refugee crises. He even exploited the recent 6 February earthquake in Northern Syria.
An old and popular Arabic proverb says, "Just heal me with that which brought me low; however, many experiments proved that amputation is the only cure."
Recent Egyptian shift
A few days ago, there was a meeting between the delegation of the Conference of the Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union and the head of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad.
However, a closer look at the delegation shows no new names, except for the Speaker of the Egyptian Parliament, Dr. Hanafi al-Jabali, who was later followed by the Minister of Egypt's Foreign Affairs, Sameh Shoukry.
The Minister was the first Egyptian official to visit Damascus in over 10 years. Right before that, President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi made a phone call to al-Assad, giving his condolences to the earthquake victims.
The rest of the delegation's members, however, came from countries that had previously normalised their relations with al-Assad or had not severed them in the first place.
However, hours after this rush toward al-Assad, most US Congress members voted on a new resolution that condemned Bashar al-Assad's regime, opposed the lifting of sanctions and demanded al-Assad hand over international aid intended for earthquake relief efforts.
On his Twitter account, Congressman Joe Wilson wrote that the House issued a resolution standing with the people of Turkey and Syria and against al-Assad's brutal regime. On his side, Jim Risch, a senior Republican and US Senate Foreign Relations Committee member, said that the latest waves of normalisation with al-Assad will only open doors to new possible sanctions.
The Assad regime is what's preventing aid from going to those in need, not sanctions on war criminals. I am concerned that easing the sanctions on Assad without guardrails opens the door for the regime to line its pockets. https://t.co/nJF8ROPvzS
He added that the tragic earthquake did not exonerate al-Assad of his crimes against the Syrian people and stressed that Syria should not be welcomed back to the Arab League.
That was followed by a clarification by the spokesperson of the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, Ahmad Abu Zeid, saying that the main reason for Minister Sameh Shoukry's visit to Damascus was for humanitarian reasons and to show solidarity with Syria after the destructive earthquake hit, stressing that he did not discuss the return of the Syrian regime to the Arab League.
However, it is difficult not to connect Egypt's visit with the emerging differences between Cairo and some Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
The KSA boycotted the EAU (Jordanian, Emirati, Egyptian, and Bahraini Industrial Partnership Meeting) meeting a few weeks ago. Also, during his participation in the Davos World Economic Forum, the Saudi Minister of Finance, Muhammad Al-Jadaan, said that the KSA is changing its way of helping its allies and encouraging other regional countries to carry out economic reforms.
He said, "We used to give direct grants and deposits without strings attached, but we are changing that. We are working with multilateral institutions to say we need to see reforms. We are taxing our people, and we expect others to do the same, to make efforts. We want to help, but we want you also to do your part".
"We used to give direct grants and deposits without strings attached and we are changing that," Mohammed al-Jadaan said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, adding Saudi Arabia was encouraging countries in the region to make reforms.https://t.co/42nQBVSSYT
Here, it is correct to say that Egypt's visit marked a possible shift in its position on al-Assad, which likely prompted the US Congress vote.
Amman's bet
Amman's bet on possibly cooperating with al-Assad to stop the smuggling of drugs and weapons from Syria to the Hashemite Kingdom, is slightly more understandable, given the economic and financial crises Jordan is suffering from, and the large number of refugees living within its borders.
Rumours that al-Assad was tiring of Iranian hegemony over Syria, were quickly dismissed following his visit to Aleppo following the earthquake where he stood next to the commander of a Shiite militia affiliated with Iran.
Time has proven that Al-Assad not only owes his survival to Iran and Russia but is happy to be a part of the Iranian project in the region.
Time has proven that Al-Assad not only owes his survival to Iran and Russia but is happy to be a part of the Iranian project in the region.
It is also important to note that Iran does not only militarily dominate Syria but also economically, politically, and culturally. Hardly a month goes by without the two parties signing new agreements.
Two things are important to note when discussing the possibility of accepting al-Assad's regime back into the Arab fold.
The first is the American position that still refuses to exonerate al-Assad's regime for crimes it has committed, especially at a decisive moment in the American-Russian conflict, which proves that the US isn't going to give Russia a free victory in Syria with all that is happening in Ukraine.
The second and most important thing is the scale of atrocities committed by Bashar al-Assad against the Syrians, not the least of which was the use of chemical weapons, which was confirmed in the investigation committee report.
The West cannot morally or politically overlook those crimes, and there cannot be Syrian reconciliation without restoring justice.
Every day, we see Syrians choosing to risk their lives at sea rather than returning to the shackles of his regime.
