Will Russia face the same fate as the Soviet Union in an arms race?

Among the most critical repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine a year ago is the rise of militarisation and armaments worldwide

Will Russia face the same fate as the Soviet Union in an arms race?

Among the most critical repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine a year ago is the rise of militarisation and armaments worldwide, increased military spending budgets, and restructuring of armies, perhaps more than ever in modern history since WWII.

This is evident from the European countries' inclination to strengthen their military power. Since the latest world war, European nations have lived for decades in a pink reverie of "world peace" after suffering from the wars' horrors and tragedies.

They focused on strengthening their economy and the welfare of their societies. They wanted to be more involved in globalisation and focus on issues such as climate change, the environment, and space.

However, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, these countries woke up to another world. They discovered they were militarily exposed and that Russia’s offensive threatened their values, safety, lifestyle, and the idea of international cooperation.

When German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron met separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow several days before the February 2022 invasion they got a taste of what was to come.

Instead of showing them the respect they deserve given their international diplomatic status, Putin hinted, sometimes bluntly, that compared to Germany and France, Russia was a large country with superior military might and a robust nuclear arsenal.

What he did not mention, however, was that Russia was economically far weaker than the two nations. Russia's GDP is $1.6 trillion, compared to Germany's $4.2 trillion and France's $3 trillion. The two Western nations are also superior in the fields of science and technology.

Germany’s about-face

After Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany, overnight, allocated a whopping €100 billion to rearm its military — breaking with its previous path which was far less focused on its military arsenal. This was quickly followed by raising its annual military spending to 2 per cent of its GDP — $85 billion.

Germany had previously rejected American calls, especially from former President Donald Trump, to boost its military spending and be less dependent on the United States for its defence.

But perhaps, more important was Germany’s decision to stop importing Russian oil and gas — of which it was hugely dependent on.

In addition, Germany’s parliament overwhelmingly voted to provide the Ukrainian army with qualitative weapons, including missiles and armoured vehicles (only around 100 out of 736 MPs opposed the decision). Berlin has even gone beyond that, providing Ukraine with advanced weapons such as Leopard tanks and also allowing other Nato countries to provide Ukraine with the tanks.

Germany is now laser-focused on parallel tracks.

The first is restructuring the German army, modernising its weapons, and securing major deals with American and German arms companies, especially securing F-35 fighter jets.

AFP
A pilot climbs into the cockpit of US Air Force's (USAF) fifth-generation supersonic multirole F-35 fighter jet on the second day of the 14th edition of Aero India 2023 at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Bengaluru.

The German weapons industry is now working full steam to meet internal and external Nato demands.

Germany is now laser-focused on parallel tracks. The first is restructuring the German army, modernising its weapons, and securing major deals with American and German arms companies. The second track is developing closer political and security relations with the United States.

The second track is developing closer political and security relations with the United States. In addition, Berlin is leaning towards building a European defence structure in partnership with France and increasing military cooperation within the framework of Nato, as other previously neutral European nations (Finland and Sweden) are negotiating to join the treaty to gain protection from Russian threats.

Japan follows suit

Turning eastwards, Japan, is also experiencing the same transformation. It has allocated $330 billion (January 2023) to be spent over the next five years to develop its defence capabilities. In 2023, Tokyo increased its military spending by 26 per cent to $50 billion and intends to raise its defence budget to 2 per cent of its GDP by the year 2027.

This is a significant break with Japan's constitution, which was drafted in the post-World War II period and placed restrictions on militarisation.

Japan is moving towards formulating a new defence strategy, taking advantage of its strengths in science and technology and learning from the lessons of the Ukraine war to build a "Multi-Domain Defence Force" in space, cyberspace, and the electromagnetic spectrum, along with boosting its sea and air capabilities and its comprehensive missile defence capabilities.

Japan is moving towards formulating a new defence strategy, taking advantage of its strengths in science and technology and learning from the lessons of the Ukraine war to build a "Multi-Domain Defence Force" in space, cyberspace, and the electromagnetic spectrum, along with boosting its sea and air capabilities and its comprehensive missile defence capabilities.

Despite its participation in Nato's previous summit (Madrid 2022), Japan is not an official member of the defence grouping, but it has defence agreements with the United States and Britain.

Additionally, it has partnered with Britain and Italy to develop the Tempest aircraft supported by artificial intelligence, which may outperform the famous F-35. Moreover, Japan is a member of a quadruple alliance (Quad) which includes the US, India, and Australia which has a security dimension. 

AFP
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Japan Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar attend the Indo-Pacific Quad meeting.

Global militarisation trend
 
France, Britain, Italy, South Korea, and most Western countries are also boosting defence spending. Earlier this year, France allocated €413 billion for military spending for the next seven years (2023-2030), an increase of one-third from previous appropriations, from 42 to 59 billion euros.

It is important to note that US armament and defence allocations alone are equivalent to 40 per cent of global spending; it is 12 times higher than that of Russia, and four times that of China, with American superiority prevailing in weapons technology and communications.

According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2022), in 2021, global military spending amounted to $2.1 trillion, in the following order: The United States $801 billion; China $293 billion; India $76 billion; the United Kingdom $68 billion; Russia $66 billion; Germany $56 billion, France $56 billion; Japan $54 billion; and South Korea $50 billion.

Meanwhile, the US has raised its 2023 military budget to $858 million, while Germany and Japan have greater capacity to increase their military spending and modernise their weaponry than Russia.

This picture must remind us of the 1980s, when the arms and space race, along with the Russian invasion of Afghanistan intertwined with internal factors, ultimately leading to the collapse and dismantling of the Soviet Union.

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