Does a ‘realistic’ approach to solve the war in Ukraine exist?https://en.majalla.com/node/287221/opinion/does-%E2%80%98realistic%E2%80%99-approach-solve-war-ukraine-exist
Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, there have been calls — both in the East and West — for a realistic approach to resolve the conflict between the two "brotherly countries." This line stems from recognition of the unique history between the two countries and Russia's right to uphold its security in the face of Nato’s expansionist ambitions that respect no borders.
The Russian-Ukrainian dispute has passed through several stages since the collapse of the Soviet Union and regime changes in Moscow and Kyiv.
This handout video grab taken and released by the Russian Defence Ministry on February 18, 2022, shows a "Moskva" Russian cruiser during the Black sea naval exercises outside the Crimean port of Sevastopol.
In the 1990s, the disagreement centred on the prospect of a Russian Black Sea fleet. Later, Moscow turned its attention towards the Russian-speaking minority in eastern Ukraine.
To complicate matters, Moscow began to demand the restoration of Crimea, which has a complex and intertwined history with Russia.
Anti government protesters prepare to close the entrances to the Independence square in central Kiev on February 28, 2014. Ukraine accused Russia of staging an "armed invasion" of Crimea.
The Crimea saga goes back centuries with the Crimean Tatars, and then moved to the mini-world war in the peninsula in the 19th century leading to its separation from Russia and annexation to Ukraine during Soviet rule.
History, culture and geopolitics are considerations that are difficult to overcome in any conflict. However, distinguishing between reality and myths also present a challenge that further complicates conflict resolution efforts.
History, culture and geopolitics are considerations that are difficult to overcome in any conflict. However, distinguishing between reality and myths also present a challenge that further complicates conflict resolution efforts.
Contradicting historical narratives make it difficult for observers to determine which party is in the right and which is in the wrong.
Russian narrative
The official Russian narrative is that Ukraine is the "land of Russian fathers", and that it would not have seceded from Russia had it not been for Western intervention — which at the time was represented by Polish and Lithuanian princes in an attempt to discourage citizens from their Orthodox faith and towards Catholicism.
Later, during World War I, the Bolshevik Revolution, and the civil war, Germany, Britain, and the United States assumed the 'Western intervention' role, as Russia perceived it.
To Russia, there is nothing original about Ukraine. Even Taras Shevchenko, the poet who founded Ukrainian national romanticism, is viewed in Russian cultural circles as a rude inconsequential peasant who cannot be compared to his Russian peers.
Ukrainian narrative
The Ukrainian narrative is no less harsh. It recalls the famine orchestrated by the Bolsheviks which reached its climax in the early 1930s with the Holodomor, aimed, in the Ukrainian view, at thoroughly cleansing the Ukrainian people.
Ukrainians carry dozens of coffins during a funeral ceremony 25 November 2006, a day of remembrance for up to 10 million people who starved to death in the great famine of 1932-33.
Even after the fall of the Soviet regime, Russia never acknowledged the famine or admitted responsibility. Instead, Moscow insisted on denying it, although more than three million Ukrainians were confirmed to have died during this period.
Ukrainian troops working with Nazi occupation forces were — according to Ukrainian national discourse — expressing the aspirations of the Ukrainians for independence and liberation from the communist yoke.
Tipping point
The divergence between Russian and Ukrainian narratives can be seen in a variety of ongoing issues relating to borders, the rights of Russian speakers, and transit fees for Russian gas in Ukrainian territory. However, these issues are dwarfed by the main reason for Russian outrage — Ukraine's attempt to cozy up to the West and join the European Union and Nato.
Moscow believes that Ukraine's intent to align with the West is fuelled by Western propaganda aimed at isolating Russia and even encouraging domestic uprising such as what happened with the failed Chechen rebellion in the 1990s.
Understanding Russian security concerns, on the one hand, and recognising Ukraine's right to self-determination, on the other, are two positions that are separated by rivers of blood, grudges, and personal enmities between Ukrainian and Russian elites and deep stereotypes perpetuated by the systematic political propaganda in the two countries.
Understanding Russian security concerns, on the one hand, and recognising Ukraine's right to self-determination, on the other, are two positions that are separated by rivers of blood, grudges, and personal enmities between Ukrainian and Russian elites.
Ukraine's right to self-determination means an absolute and complete recognition of its independence and, therefore, its sovereignty over all its lands, including Crimea and Donbas, and joining any international organisation that it wants.
Possibility of greater escalation
If we add to this the conflicting foreign interests between the West, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other, we could see a serious escalation of global conflict emerge akin to the days of the Cold War and the subsequent arms race.
Any notion that this conflict can be solved by mutual concessions and flexibility is extremely naïve. While a negotiated solution is surely the best way to come to a resolution, there are many factors that need to be considered.
And also, many questions that need to be addressed such as: Who determines how far the negotiations can go and what are the limits of the deal to stop the bloodshed?
Contradictory expectations and demands of all parties to the conflict stand as a barrier to reaching a genuine agreement that takes into account the special relationship between Russia and Ukraine.
Having said that, resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is crucial to boosting not only European but also global security in the face of looming conflicts over Taiwan and elsewhere.
