Economic reforms face uphill battle in oil-dependent Kuwait

Citizens are reluctant to give up government support and do not have adequate vocational training to compete for jobs

Economic reforms face uphill battle in oil-dependent Kuwait

Kuwait: 2022 was a tough year for the global economy. Many countries across the world faced structural challenges and a decline in economic activity. The war in Ukraine further exacerbated these strains.

While the rise of oil prices benefited Kuwait, helping it to fund increasing public spending, the country is still trying to keep up with mounting public demands.

Over the past two years, there have been rising calls to increase wages for frontline workers during the Covid-19 pandemic, which included healthcare, security, and basic service workers.

But these frontlines have been extended to include workers in other fields that had little role in the fight against the pandemic. To this end, an estimated 600 million dinars ($2 billion) was allocated from the national budget, but the line was not drawn at frontline workers.

In 2022, proposals to compensate employees for unused leave days were put forward with no timeframe specified, with 400 million dinars ($1.3 billion) earmarked for this purpose.

Now, members of the new National Assembly elected in September are demanding salary, wage, and pension raises as well as consumer debt buyouts, among other things.

Drastic changes

Just when these populist demands will stop remains unknown. It is also unclear to what extent the government, represented by the Council of Ministers, will be able to address them in the coming months and years without disrupting parliamentary life.

These matters have been embedded in the fabric of Kuwait’s economic development and financial policies since the beginning of the oil era in the late 1940s. Then they were reinforced after the first oil shock in 1974.

Naturally, things have changed over the past seven decades.

In 1957, an official census recorded the country’s population at 225,000, including 115,000 Kuwaitis — a far cry from today’s population of 4.4 million at the end of 2022, of whom 1.5 million are Kuwaitis, representing 34% of the total population, according to data from the Public Authority of Civil Information (PACI).

 

Between 2004 and 2022, the annual budget increased at astronomical rates and now stands at more than 22 billion dinars ($72 billion). Meanwhile, oil revenues hover around 90%, while modest non-oil revenues are limited to service and customs fees. 

Between 2004 and 2022, the annual budget increased at astronomical rates and now stands at more than 22 billion dinars ($72 billion).  
 
Meanwhile, oil revenues hover around 90%, while modest non-oil revenues are limited to service and customs fees and exclude revenues from the Future Generations Fund. 
 
Privitisation fears 
 
The 2010 Privatisation Law was approved with the aim of promoting the role of the private sector, lessening the state's burden, preventing government monopoly of certain activities, and enhancing economic competition and efficiency.  
 
However, the government was unable to transfer many of its assets to the private sector, including power production, water desalination, and terrestrial communication facilities.  
 
It was also unable to privatise Kuwait Airways, the Kuwait Public Transport Company, Kuwait Post, or the government's printing press.  
 
It may have been able to sell shares in banks, investment companies, or non-oil manufacturing industrial companies, but key privatisation projects remain stagnant amid resistance from the political community. 
 
Politicians have reservations about privatisation. They worry that private companies may not hire or retain Kuwaiti nationals. They are also concerned that these companies, which currently enjoy government support, could cut salaries and raise the prices of their services. 
  
Clearly, aside from political will, privatisation requires awareness of the need to launch a structural transformation, openness to foreign investment and support for competitiveness.  
 
This explains why Kuwait has yet to make structural reforms and upgrade some services. 
 
Economic imbalances 
 
Kuwait's economic infrastructure is plagued by imbalances and flaws, including its heavy reliance on oil revenues to support public spending.  
 
The private sector, which contributes no more than 25% of the GDP, often relies on dealings with the government, such as supply contracts or contracts to deliver construction works or other services for government agencies. 
 
More importantly, government and public sector companies employ more than 80% of national labour, while foreign workers represent over 80% of the labour force in private establishments and companies, according to PACI data.  
 
Additionally, most foreign workers in the private sector have mid-level education or below, and marginal employment remains prevalent in private sector institutions. 
 
What's more, since its adoption in 1936, Kuwait's education system failed to yield a labour force with adequate vocational training. In fact, vocational education is almost non-existent.  
 
Most high school graduates either enrol in universities inside or outside of Kuwait or join the army or police. In other words, the educational system has failed to improve output or provide an adequate labour force. 
 
The reluctance of Kuwaitis to work in certain professions has also reinforced a growing reliance on migrant labour. 
 
Mounting challenges 
 
Kuwait's economy will face several challenges in the coming years.  
 
As a country that primarily depends on oil revenue, and much like all energy-reliant economies, Kuwait will have to confront environmental challenges and provide clean energy, taking into account global standards and targets.  
 
Oil may remain an important and essential source of energy in the coming years and decades, but technological advancements in the electricity and transportation sectors could lessen its dependence on oil sooner rather than later. 
 
Kuwait has a sovereign wealth fund worth over $700 billion and a strong investment portfolio. But its performance depends on the conditions, transformation, and fluctuations of the global economy. 
 
Kuwait will also face demographic challenges, as its youth make up a large chunk of society. The median age in Kuwait is around 21, which means that half the country's citizens are below this age and 70% of Kuwaitis are under the age of 30. 
 
 

Kuwait will also face demographic challenges, as its youth make up a large chunk of society. The median age in Kuwait is around 21, which means that half the country's citizens are below this age and 70% of Kuwaitis are under the age of 30. 

Therefore, the country has to deal with education and employment challenges in the short and medium term, which could become a huge weight on state budget if no decisive measures are taken to resolve these issues. 
 
There is a clear need to shift towards an economy that increasingly depends on market mechanisms, enhances the role of the private sector, and develops the potential of the knowledge economy. 
 
-Amer Ziab Al-Tamimi is a Kuwaiti Economic Advisor and Researcher
 

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