Palestinian options at a standstill with no breakthrough in sight

However, Israel could not have succeeded in advancing those policies without contributing factors, including the weakness of the PA, its failure to properly manage the affairs of the Palestinians, along with its diminishing legitimacy, the discord between its entities, the slackness of its apparatus, the lack of accountability, and the frustration resulting from the absence of any prospect for establishing an independent Palestinian State.

Settler colonialism and oppression

The number of Israeli settlers in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) is now 726,427, distributed over 176 settlements and 186 outposts.

Over the past year, 223 seizures of property were carried out, in addition to issuing decisions to seize 26,424 dunums under different pretexts, according to Palestinian news agency WAFA. 

Additionally, 230 Palestinians, including children and women, were killed by Israeli bullets (171 in the West Bank, 53 in Gaza, and six inside the Green Line). Another 9,335 Palestinians were injured, and some 7,000 were arrested, of whom 4,700 remain imprisoned. 

According to Israeli rights group B'Tselem, 2022 was the deadliest year for Palestinians at the hands of the Israeli army (in the West Bank) since the end of the second Intifada (late 2004).

In 2022, Israel launched yet another offensive on Gaza, which lasted for three days (5-7 August), following a raid that resulted in the assassination of Tayseer al-Jaabari, leader of Al-Quds Brigades, the armed wing of the Islamic Jihad Movement, in Gaza (5th of August), to which the Movement responded by bombing Israeli cities adjacent to the Gaza Strip. 

At least 48 Palestinians were killed in the offensive.

In the past 14 years, there have been four Israeli wars waged against Gaza, however the latest offensive was different in that the Islamic Jihad Movement was the only one firing rockets.

This indicated the failure of the resistance factions to impose "rules of engagement" on Israel and the low credibility of its claims to adopt two policies: first, the unity between the West Bank and Gaza, and second, the unity of the resistance factions. 

Spike in guerrilla tactics

As a result of the significant escalation by Israeli forces and extremist settlers, the past year witnessed a growth in individual, factional-independent guerrilla operations. 

They first came in response to the brutality of Israeli forces and attacks by settlers and, secondly, as a way to fill the Palestinian political void and to vent the anger and frustration caused by the collapse of the option of establishing an independent state for the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.
 
These operations are evidence of the Palestinian national movement's lack of a clear, compelling, and sustainable resistance strategy. Those operations resulted in the deaths of 31 Israelis and 224 Palestinians, with dozens sustaining various injuries.

The Israeli death toll is quite high, compared to previous years, as 21 were killed in 2021, 3 in 2020, 12 in 2019, 16 in 2018, 18 in 2017, 17 in 2016, and 29 in 2015, according to the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth. 

In past years, there was approximately 1 Israeli killed for every 20 Palestinians. In comparison, last year, the gap was narrowed to 1 Israeli for every 7 Palestinians. 

This is a critical development given the heavy toll of Israeli missile wars against Gaza resulting in high causalities on the Palestinian side. 

At least 1,436 Palestinians were killed in the first war (late 2008) compared to 13 Israelis, 155 in the second war (late 2012) compared to 3 Israelis, 2,174 in the third war (summer of 2014) compared to 70 Israelis, 243 in the fourth war (summer of 2021) compared to 12 Israelis, and 44 in the fifth war (summer of 2022) without any human losses on the Israeli side. 

This demonstrates the massive gap in human casualties in favour of Israel. The ratio in the first war was about 1/100, 1/50 in the second war, 1/30 in the third, 1/20 in the fourth, and 0/44 in the fifth. 

This is not only due to Israel's predominance in the balance of power but also because of the Palestinian's lack of a military strategy, as well as their instability in managing their affairs, and the ease of luring them into military conflict, where Israel has the upper hand, as well as their failure to analyse their experience in a critical and accountable manner and the prevalence of emotions over political tactics and rational thinking.

Conflict over Jerusalem

Last year, the city of Jerusalem retained its unique and highly-sensitive position in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, given its symbolic, historical, religious, and political status, and given the growing influence of extremist settlers and the national and religious right in Israel, and their attempts to change the status quo, both in terms of promoting settlement in Jerusalem and in terms of imposing their will to change the situation in the Holy City and Al-Aqsa Mosque. 

The number of Israeli invasions in East Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa Mosque reached 262, with the participation of over 48,000 settlers, according to WAFA, all of which were carried out under the protection of the Israeli military forces. Those invasions sparked clashes with the Palestinians, resulting in injuries and arrests.

Two notable events in Jerusalem can be highlighted here, the first of which was the storming of the martyred journalist Shireen Abu Akleh's funeral on 13 May by the heavily armed and armoured Israeli forces, as if they were prepared to go into a fierce battle with the mourners, in an epic and tragic scene that the world will never forget. 
 

In an editorial, the Haaretz wrote: "What happened in Jerusalem at the funeral of Al-Jazeera correspondent Shireen Abu Akleh is a disgrace to the State of Israel".

Meanwhile, Israeli journalist Itamar Eichner wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth: "The police officers who attacked the pallbearers at Abu Akleh's funeral also dealt the final blow to what was left of our international legitimacy."

The second event was the battle over the Palestinian flag in East Jerusalem on 30 May as thousands of Israeli forces rallied to protect groups of Israelis affiliated with the extreme nationalist and religious right, marching to storm Al-Aqsa Mosque to provoke Palestinians, affirm Israel's sovereignty over the city, and prevent unarmed Palestinians from expressing their rejection of that march by simply carrying their national flag. 

This led to violent clashes that showed Israel's brutality, represented by its security forces and settlers, as opposed to the bravery displayed by the Palestinians.

Israeli elections

Last year concluded with the formation of a new Israeli government that included parties from both the nationalist and the religious far right, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Israeli writer, Yossi Verter, described the latest government as an "alliance of thugs". It comprises the Likud and Judith Hatore for Western Jews, Shas for Eastern Jews, Religious Zionism and Jewish power. 

 Zvi Bar'el, a Middle Eastern affairs analyst for Haaretz, wrote: "How would we convince the world, now, that Zionism is not a form of racism?"

In a statement, the new government affirmed the following: "The Jewish people have an exclusive right... in all the regions of the Land of Israel... The government will advance and develop settlements throughout the Land of Israel, in the Galilee, the Negev, the Golan, Judea, and Samaria - i.e., the West Bank." 

This effectively means disgarding the peace process with the Palestinians and dealing with them as mere residents.

This does not mean that Israel has changed significantly after the last elections, as all Israeli governments have adopted anti-Palestinian policies, denying Palestinians their national and civil rights — both collectively and as individuals. 

However, some governments have been using a "soft glove" approach, using discourse that does not seek to sever ties with the Palestinian Authority. In contrast, the current government includes people who have committed or incited crimes against Palestinians and believe Palestinians have no rights in their country.

Widening gap

The Palestinian situation remains the same, especially regarding Palestinian political entities (the PLO and the Palestinian Authority), as no elections were held, which further undermined the legitimacy of the Palestinian leadership and widened the gap between the Palestinian Authority and its people.

This is evidenced by the ongoing inter-Palestinian rift between authorities in the West Bank and Gaza on the one hand, and between the two major movements dominating the Palestinian political space (Fatah and Hamas) on the other, despite efforts made by Algeria and Egypt to restore Palestinian national unity against the background of the Arab Summit that was held in Algeria last November. 

This situation has been aggravated by the consolidation of the transition from a national liberation movement struggling against the occupation, backed by its people, to authority over its people under the occupation, which explains the constant state of political discord among Palestinians and the clinging of each of the two movements to their respective authorities, in their respective territories.

The problem is that neither authority has provided the best example in the relationship with its society. They did not involve them in the choices they made nor in policymaking. 

Additionally, they imposed restrictions on grassroots initiatives and the obstruction of civil society development, to the extent that it can be said that the Palestinians were more united, more liberated, and more determined in their struggle against Israel before the establishment of the Palestinian Authority than after its foundation.

Be that as it may, the situation of the Palestinians living inside the Green Line was no better, as Israel targeted them with its colonial and racist policies, increasing pressure on them in order to limit the possibility of interaction between them and their fellow Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. 

On the other hand, the Palestinian discord also impacted them, given that they fall outside the Palestinian political jurisdiction and their representative power in the Knesset declined following the recent Israeli elections.

These Palestinians seem to be getting the short end of the stick.

First, because their representation in the Knesset, which was about 15 seats, fell to only 10 seats, and the National Democratic Assembly (Balad) was unable to pass the electoral threshold according to their representative and political power.

Secondly, because of political differences between their parties; and thirdly, because of tensions in the Palestinian community against the backdrop of recent events, which benefited Israel in general, and the national and religious right in particular.

The fading Palestinian Cause 

The latest Arab Summit failed in restoring the Palestinian Cause to its central position on the Arab agenda due to disputes among Arab states, the existence of other priorities and risks, and because that idea was shaken after the second wave of normalisation with Israel.

This normalisation saw the emergence of initiatives to establish cooperation systems with Israel, driven by the dangers stemming from the rise of Iranian influence and the decline of American interest in the security of Arab region, which killed the notion that Palestine is Israel's gateway to the Arab world. 
 

At the summit, the Arab Peace Initiative, launched two decades ago at the Beirut Summit, was restored, thus affirming the state of helplessness among the Arab states, or as a way to avoid blame for that helplessness, or simply for mass consumption, as that initiative was soon forgotten after Israel neglected it.

On the other hand, despite having been exposed as a colonial, racist, and religious state in the international public opinion, and even according to international reports, Israel continues to bolster its position at all levels: the Arab level, the regional level, and the international level.

Apart from several Arab countries that showed openness towards normalising relations with Israel, Turkey has also restored its relations with Israel. 

Not to mention, Israel has close and distinct ties with some major world powers, including countries that previously supported the Palestinian people and their cause, including China, India, and Russia, as well as countries in Asia and Africa. 

This is due to Israel's thriving science and technology market, while the Palestinian leadership brings nothing to the table, not even at the discourse level or as a model for a political system.

This year, 74 years will have passed since the Palestinian Nakba, and the Palestinian National Movement will have turned 57 years old. 

However, there is no positive indications that the Palestinians can achieve any of their ambitions. There is also no national movement that takes Palestinian suffering and sacrifices into account or reviews the decline of the Palestinian Cause with a critical eye to restore it.

This only exacerbates the feelings of anger and frustration among Palestinians, an equation that could have unpredictable consequences.