The Russia-focused Sovecon consultancy said on Monday it had raised its forecast for Russia's wheat exports in the 2022/23 marketing season which started on July 1 by 200,000 tons to 43.1 million tons.
Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, supplying the Middle East and Africa. Its exports are down so far this season due to a strong rouble, state export tax, and problems with banks and logistics caused by Western sanctions imposed on Moscow.
The increase is modest compared with Sovecon's recent upgrade of this season's wheat crop estimate - to 94.7 million tons from 90.9 million.
"From the supply-demand perspective, Russia could have exported 50.0 million tons of wheat this season. However, the strong rouble and restrictive export tax are not allowing exports to flow as fast as they should," Andrey Sizov, the head of Sovecon, said in a note.
The consultancy, however, expects exports from Russia to accelerate with a gradual decrease in competition from other European wheat.
The exports would get further support if global wheat prices strengthen or prices in the domestic market decline, or the rouble weakens against the dollar, it added.
